大越期货沪镍&不锈钢早报-20260227

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel, the external market has corrected, but the price remains above the 20 - day moving average. The nickel ore market was stable during the Spring Festival. Although there was a landslide accident in the Indonesian mining area and the affected area suspended operations, it had little impact on the overall supply, and the ore price remained firm. The nickel - iron price rebounded slightly before the festival, with strong cost - line support. The electrolytic nickel production increased in January, and the previously reduced production capacity resumed. The cumulative inventory at home and abroad is at a high level, with sufficient overall supply. The inventory of downstream stainless steel has increased, and the pre - festival consumption was weak. In the new energy industry, the first quarter of new energy vehicles is also a consumption off - season, with overall weak demand. The basis is positive, the inventory situation is negative, the disk is neutral, the main position is net long and the long position is increasing, and the Shanghai Nickel 2605 will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - For stainless steel, the spot stainless steel price has risen. In the short term, the nickel ore price is firm, the demand in Indonesia is strong, and the nickel - iron price has rebounded, with strong cost - line support. The stainless steel inventory has continued to increase, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can effectively recover after the festival. The basis is positive, the inventory situation is neutral, the disk is neutral, and the stainless steel 2604 will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - The price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract decreased from 142,180 on February 25th to 141,040 on February 26th, a decrease of 1140; the price of LME Nickel decreased from 18,045 to 17,730, a decrease of 315. The price of stainless steel's main contract increased from 14,245 to 14,265, an increase of 20 [7]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of February 13th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 58,775 tons, of which the futures inventory was 52,458 tons, an increase of 1318 tons and 1184 tons respectively. On February 26th, the LME nickel inventory was 289,506, an increase of 1698 compared with February 25th; the Shanghai Nickel (warehouse receipts) was 53,158, a decrease of 19; the total inventory was 342,664, an increase of 1679 [9][10]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On February 13th, the inventory in Wuxi was 562,400 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 326,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,006,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 41,000 tons. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series was 647,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons. On February 26th, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 60,750, the same as on February 25th [13][14]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - The price of red soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) increased from 66.5 to 70.5 US dollars per wet ton; the price of red soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) remained at 30 US dollars per wet ton. The high - nickel (8 - 12) price per nickel point increased from 1065.33 to 1073.43 yuan, and the low - nickel (below 2) price per ton increased from 3600 to 3675 yuan [18]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 13,847, the scrap steel production cost is 13,441, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 18,181 [20]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price is converted to 138,984 yuan per ton [23].