大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views 2.1. Daily Views on Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal has increased significantly after the Spring Festival as coal mines resume production, while coking enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw coal and have low restocking demand. The coking coal market is in the initial stage of supply - demand recovery, with supply recovering slightly faster than demand. The price is expected to be stable and weak in the short term [2]. - The spot price of coking coal is 1200, and the basis is 110, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1971 tons, a decrease of 243 tons compared to last week [2]. - The downstream demand for coking coal is at a seasonal low, and steel mills maintain a low - inventory strategy. The coking coal price is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [2]. 2.2. Daily Views on Coke - After the Spring Festival, the inventory of coke in coking enterprises will gradually decline. Due to the approaching Two Sessions, the supply of coke is expected to decrease [7]. - The spot price of coke is 1630, and the basis is - 44, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [7]. - The total sample inventory of coke is 944 tons, a decrease of 3 tons compared to last week [7]. - During the Two Sessions, the demand for coke is weak, and the cost - side support is insufficient. The coke price is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price - On February 26, 2026, the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, along with their price changes [10]. - On February 26, 2026, the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports, including different grades and origins, are presented [11]. 3.2. Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 258 tons, unchanged from last week; coke port inventory is 199 tons, a decrease of 6 tons from last week [22]. - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 893 tons, a decrease of 225 tons from last week; coke inventory is 56 tons, an increase of 12 tons from last week [26]. - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 820 tons, a decrease of 18 tons from last week; coke inventory is 689 tons, a decrease of 9 tons from last week [31]. 3.3. Factors Affecting Coking Coal - Positive factors: rising iron - water production and limited supply increase [5]. - Negative factors: slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. 3.4. Factors Affecting Coke - Positive factors: rising iron - water production and increasing blast - furnace operating rate [9]. - Negative factors: squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of restocking demand [9].