大越期货油脂早报-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supplies. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is relatively neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026 [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8420, the basis is 222, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long position of the main soybean oil contract has increased [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows a slightly bearish situation, and the subsequent supply pressure will decrease [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8700, the basis is - 14, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, and an increase of 46% year - on - year [3] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The short position of the main palm oil contract has increased [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows a slightly bearish situation, and the subsequent supply pressure will decrease [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9860, the basis is 675, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - Main Position: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract has decreased [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish: The price of oil and fat is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oil and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamental situation of oil and fat is relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - Soybean oil inventory [6] - Soybean meal inventory [8] - Oil factory soybean crushing [10] - Palm oil inventory [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed inventory [21] - Total domestic oil and fat inventory [23] Demand - Related - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] - Apparent consumption of soybean meal [14]