大越期货豆粕早报-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal (M2605): Expected to oscillate between 2800 and 2860. The market is influenced by the US - China trade negotiation, US soybean harvest weather, and South American soybean production. The short - term trend is neutral, with factors such as basis, inventory, and position affecting the market [9]. - Soybeans (A2605): Forecasted to fluctuate between 4660 and 4760. The market is affected by the US - China trade negotiation, US soybean weather, and South American soybean production. The short - term trend is neutral, with factors like basis, inventory, and position having an impact [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal (M2605): Ranged from 2800 to 2860, influenced by US - China trade and South American weather. The market is neutral, with basis being positive, inventory falling but still high year - on - year, price above the 20 - day moving average, and an increase in short positions by the main players [9]. - Soybeans (A2605): Ranged from 4660 to 4760, affected by US - China trade and South American weather. The market is neutral, with basis being negative, inventory decreasing but higher year - on - year, price above the 20 - day moving average, and an increase in long positions by the main players [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary US - China tariff agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - Domestic soybean imports are decreasing in Q1, and soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits lead to low expectations for pig restocking, but soybean meal demand in January supports prices. The market is affected by both US soybeans and demand [13]. - High domestic soybean meal inventory, potential US soybean weather speculation, and the preliminary US - China trade agreement result in short - term range - bound trading for soybean meal [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal - Long Factors: Preliminary US - China trade agreement, no pressure on domestic soybean meal inventory, and uncertain South American soybean weather [14]. - Short Factors: High total domestic soybean imports in January and expected South American soybean harvest under normal weather [14]. - Main Logic: Market focus is on US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary US - China trade agreement [14]. - Soybeans - Long Factors: Imported soybean cost supports the domestic soybean market, and there is an expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Short Factors: Brazilian soybean harvest and increased Chinese purchases of Brazilian soybeans, as well as new domestic soybean production suppressing prices [15]. - Main Logic: Market focus is on US soybean weather and US - China trade tariff negotiations [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From February 10 to 26, 2026, the trading volume of soybean meal varied, while rapeseed meal had little trading volume. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually increased [16]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From February 11 to 26, 2026, soybean and soybean meal futures and spot prices showed certain fluctuations [18]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From February 10 to 26, 2026, the number of soybean and soybean meal warehouse receipts changed to some extent [20]. - Soybean Meal Spot Price: Soybean meal futures returned to range - bound trading, while spot prices were relatively stable, with the spot premium remaining at a relatively high level [23]. - Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: Global and domestic soybean supply and demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025 are presented, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [32][33]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 are provided, including data on planting rate, harvest rate, and growth indicators [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply and demand reports from July 2025 to February 2026 show changes in planting area, yield, production, and other indicators [44]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed in [9]. - Soybeans: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed in [11]. 3.6 Other Market Information - US soybean weekly export inspections decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45]. - Imported soybean arrivals were at a low level at the beginning of the year and decreased year - on - year recently [47]. - Oil mill soybean inventory continued to decline, while soybean meal inventory rebounded from a low level [48]. - Oil mill soybean crushing volume returned to a high level, and soybean meal production in December increased year - on - year [50]. - Oil mill unfulfilled contracts continued to decline, and stocking demand weakened [52]. - Brazilian soybean import costs fluctuated downward following US soybeans, and the market profit fluctuated slightly [54]. - Pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, sow inventory decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month [56]. - Pig prices fluctuated slightly recently, and piglet prices rebounded slightly [58]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs continued to rise [60]. - Domestic pig - farming profits were slightly profitable [62]. - The pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio dropped to a low level [64].