大越期货燃料油早报-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The downstream marine fuel demand showed seasonal strength before the Spring Festival holiday, but the marine fuel bunkering activities were mostly sluggish during the holiday. After the holiday, the downstream marine fuel bunkering activities will gradually regain momentum. Affected by the holiday, the sales volume of marine fuels in Singapore in February will decline significantly [3]. - The spot prices of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are at par with the futures prices [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of February 25 was 23.879 million barrels, a decrease of 2.77 million barrels, which is favorable [3]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is favorable [3]. - The main positions of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are short positions. The short positions of high - sulfur are decreasing and low - sulfur are increasing, which is unfavorable [3]. - Overnight, the oil price fluctuated greatly around the Iran - US negotiation process, and fuel oil fluctuated sharply with crude oil. After the Spring Festival holiday, the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market strengthened, while the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to be under pressure due to sufficient supply in Singapore recently. Overall, it fluctuates with crude oil. FU2605 is expected to operate in the range of 2900 - 2950, and LU2605 in the range of 3420 - 3470 [3]. - The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The previous price of the FU main contract futures was 2934, the current price is 2989, with a rise of 55 and an increase rate of 1.87%. The previous price of the LU main contract futures was 3464, the current price is 3465, with a rise of 1 and an increase rate of 0.03%. The previous FU basis was 18, the current is - 1, with a decrease of 18.55 and a decrease rate of - 102.78%. The previous LU basis was 29, the current is - 2, with a decrease of 31 and a decrease rate of - 106% [5]. - The previous price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil was 500.00, the current price is 505.00, with a rise of 5.00 and an increase rate of 1.00%. The previous price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil was 505.00, the current price is 514.00, with a rise of 9.00 and an increase rate of 1.78%. The previous price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was 419.99, the current price is 424.38, with a rise of 4.39 and an increase rate of 1.05%. The previous price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was 493.50, the current price is 493.33, with a decrease of 0.17 and a decrease rate of - 0.03%. The previous price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil was 388.86, the current price is 393.17, with a rise of 4.31 and an increase rate of 1.11%. The previous price of Singapore diesel was 671.50, the current price is 670.12, with a decrease of 1.38 and a decrease rate of - 0.21% [6]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the turmoil in Iran and the issuance of China's import quotas. Bearish factors include the unproven optimistic demand and the pressure on upstream crude oil [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The fundamentals of fuel oil are affected by seasonal demand, and the sales volume in February will decline significantly due to the Spring Festival holiday. The basis shows that the spot is at par with the futures. The inventory decrease is favorable, the price trend is favorable, but the main positions being short are unfavorable [3]. 5. Spread Data - A chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread is provided, but specific data is not further elaborated [10]. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on December 17, 2025, was 22.559 million barrels, with an increase of 0.14 million barrels; on December 24, 2025, it was 21.789 million barrels, with a decrease of 0.77 million barrels; on December 31, 2025, it was 22.659 million barrels, with an increase of 0.87 million barrels; on January 7, 2026, it was 22.709 million barrels, with an increase of 0.05 million barrels; on January 14, 2026, it was 22.909 million barrels, with an increase of 0.2 million barrels; on January 21, 2026, it was 23.529 million barrels, with an increase of 0.62 million barrels; on January 28, 2026, it was 24.579 million barrels, with an increase of 1.05 million barrels; on February 4, 2026, it was 25.529 million barrels, with an increase of 0.95 million barrels; on February 11, 2026, it was 26.379 million barrels, with an increase of 0.85 million barrels; on February 18, 2026, it was 26.649 million barrels, with an increase of 0.27 million barrels; on February 25, 2026, it was 23.879 million barrels, with a decrease of 2.77 million barrels [8].