大越期货原油早报-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of oil fluctuates significantly with the negotiation process. The indirect negotiation between the US and Iran has made "significant progress" and is close to reaching a consensus in some areas, but the US military pressure continues and the core differences still exist. The US also held meetings with representatives from Russia and Ukraine respectively, and the three - party talks may move to Abu Dhabi in early March. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in the first 24 days of February reached the highest level since April 2023, and Iran is also vigorously exporting crude oil, driving up the freight from the Middle East to Asia and supporting the relatively strong operation of the domestic oil price. The SC2604 is expected to run in the range of 483 - 495, and there are long - term opportunities to try short positions on rallies [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The mediation of Oman indicates that the US and Iran have made significant progress in the negotiation to resolve the long - standing nuclear dispute. The US has a large military deployment in the Middle East. The US and Ukraine officials held talks in Geneva about post - war reconstruction. The cost of chartering very large crude carriers from the Middle East to China exceeded $200,000 per day for the first time since 2020 [3]. - Basis: On February 26, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $71.03 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.89 per barrel. The basis was 42.31 yuan/barrel, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [3]. - Inventory: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending February 20 increased by 11.427 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.25 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 15.989 million barrels, far exceeding the expected increase of 1.481 million barrels. The inventory in the Cushing area increased by 0.881 million barrels. As of February 26, the inventory of Shanghai crude oil futures remained unchanged at 2.557 million barrels [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average [3]. - Main Position: As of February 17, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. - Expectation: The SC2604 is expected to run in the range of 483 - 495, and there are long - term opportunities to try short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2 Recent News - US - Iran Negotiation: On February 26, Iran and the US held the third round of indirect negotiations in Geneva. Oman's mediation led to optimistic signals, with "significant progress" and "close to consensus" in some areas. However, the US military deployment in the Middle East continued to escalate, indicating core differences. The technical - level negotiation will be held in Vienna next week [5]. - US Trade Investigation: The US International Trade Commission will investigate the economic impact of revoking China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations status in a six - year scenario, which may lead to higher tariffs on Chinese imports. The investigation results will be announced by August 21 [5]. - Saudi Oil Exports: The oil exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to reach the highest level in nearly three years. The oil exports in the first 24 days of February reached 7.3 million barrels per day, the highest since April 2023. If the trend continues, the daily average export volume will increase by more than 0.4 million barrels compared with January [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: Not clearly stated in the content - Likely to be Bearish: The IEA is worried about crude oil surplus, and the supply problems of some oil - producing countries have been alleviated [6]. - Market Driver: In the short term, continue to focus on geopolitical factors; in the medium - to - long term, there is a risk of oversupply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased by $0.15 (0.21%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.21 (- 0.32%), SC crude oil decreased by 3.40 yuan (- 0.69%), and Oman crude oil decreased by $0.36 (- 0.51%) [7]. - Spot Market: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by $1.35 (1.90%), WTI decreased by $0.21 (- 0.32%), Oman crude oil increased by $0.61 (0.87%), Shengli crude oil increased by $0.13 (0.19%), and Dubai crude oil increased by $0.11 (0.16%) [9]. - Inventory Data: The API inventory in the US for the week ending February 20 increased by 11.427 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 15.989 million barrels [3]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of February 17, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 141,343, an increase of 23,529 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of February 17, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 2,631,863, a decrease of 17,876 [19].