大越期货沥青期货早报-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamental situation of asphalt is bearish, with supply pressure expected to decrease next week due to recent production cuts by refineries. However, demand remains sluggish due to the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. Crude oil prices are weakening, reducing cost support. The asphalt 2604 contract is expected to trade in a narrow range between 3321 - 3394 [8]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support, while bearish factors are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward trend in demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 23.3701%, a 2.76 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The national sample enterprise shipment was 154,200 tons, a 27.12% month - on - month decrease. The sample enterprise production was 390,000 tons, a 10.55% month - on - month decrease, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.298 million tons, a 26.02% month - on - month increase [8]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 21.7%, a 0.11 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 3.7058%, a 0.91 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 2%, a 7 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 5%, a 10 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was 34.57 yuan/ton, a 25.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 176.2071 yuan/ton, a 15.24% month - on - month increase. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil prices were weakening, and short - term support was expected to weaken [8]. - Basis: On February 26, the Shandong spot price was 3300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract was - 57 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [8]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 988,000 tons, a 5.33% month - on - month increase; factory inventory was 616,000 tons, a 5.66% month - on - month increase; port diluted asphalt inventory was 980,000 tons, a 2.08% month - on - month increase. All types of inventory were continuously accumulating, which is neutral [8]. - Market Trend: The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 04 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and short positions decreased, which is bearish [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report shows the prices, price changes, and basis of various asphalt futures contracts, as well as data on registered warehouse receipts, some inter - month spreads, weekly inventory, weekly开工率, weekly production and loss volume, weekly shipment volume, asphalt coking profit, and downstream demand开工率 [15][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [20][22]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: It shows the historical trends of the spreads of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [25]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [28]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2026 [31][32]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt and SC crude oil and asphalt and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026 [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - It shows the historical trends of the market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [38]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [41]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: It shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [45]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [48]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It shows the historical trends of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [51]. - Production: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [54]. - Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: It shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [59]. - Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [61]. - 开工率: It shows the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [64]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: It shows the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2026 [67]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: It shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [70][71]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 sample enterprises) and factory inventory (54 sample enterprises) from 2022 to 2026 [74]. - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026 [77]. - Import and Export Situation - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [80][83]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2026 [86]. - Apparent Consumption: It shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2026 [88]. - Downstream Demand - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2026 [91][92]. - It shows the historical trends of the sales of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2019 to 2026 [96][98]. - Asphalt开工率 - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率: It shows the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026 [100]. - Asphalt开工率 by Use: It shows the historical trends of the construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026 [102]. - Downstream开工率: It shows the historical trends of the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 to 2026 [104][105]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [108].