三大油脂周度报告-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, palm oil exports are weak with expected inventory accumulation, so it will fluctuate weakly; rapeseed oil will fluctuate as the market focuses on China's purchase of Canadian rapeseed and Australian rapeseed crushing; soybean oil will fluctuate as global soybean supply is loose and the US biodiesel policy is about to be clarified [75] - In the medium - to - long - term, palm oil prices are expected to rise as the origin is in the seasonal production - reduction period and the fundamentals have improved; rapeseed oil prices may decline in the long - run due to increased future supply; the soybean - palm oil price spread has recovered, and the cost of soybean oil is expected to rise as its consumption remains cost - effective [75] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From February 13 to February 27, 2026, the closing price of the palm oil futures main contract (P2605) increased from 8698 to 8780, a rise of 0.94%, while the spot price decreased by 0.27% [4] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil futures main contract (OI2605) increased from 9038 to 9170, a rise of 1.46%, and the spot price increased by 1.06% [4] - The closing price of the soybean oil futures main contract (Y2605) increased from 8140 to 8226, a rise of 1.06%, and the spot price increased by 1.98% [4] 3.2 Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of February 26, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 302 yuan/ton (2 yuan/ton more than before the holiday), 725 yuan/ton (17 yuan/ton less than before the holiday), and - 64 yuan/ton (56 yuan/ton less than before the holiday) respectively [9] - As of February 27, 2026, the YP spread was - 554 yuan/ton (90 yuan/ton more than before the holiday) [9] 3.3 Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of February 20, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 0.50 million tons (unchanged from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 70.64 million tons (unchanged from the previous week), the soybean oil inventory of national oil mills was 113.80 million tons (0.32 million tons more than the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 184.94 million tons (0.32 million tons more than the previous week) [16] 3.4 Palm Oil Supply Side - As of February 24, 2026, the total port inventory of palm oil was 74.40 million tons (unchanged from before the holiday) [21] - SPPOMA data shows that from February 1 - 25, 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.25% month - on - month [21] 3.5 Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of February 20, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 559.40 million tons (60.50 million tons more than the previous week), and the soybean inventory of major national oil mills was 519.54 million tons (42.15 million tons more than the previous week) [39] - As of February 27, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 457.05 yuan/ton (67.25 yuan/ton more than before the holiday) [39] 3.6 Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of February 20, 2026, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 7.5 million tons (2.5 million tons more than the previous week) [54] - As of February 27, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2628.80 yuan/ton (8.2 yuan/ton more than before the holiday) [54] 3.7 Demand Side - On February 26, 2026, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 1299 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 4500 tons, and the POGO spread was 367.49 dollars/ton (71.5 dollars/ton less than before the holiday) [71] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 million tons [71] 3.8 Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has been extended to March 9. The Trump administration plans to re - allocate at least 50% of the exempted biofuel blending obligations to large refineries, and the US biodiesel policy will gradually become clear [73] - Foreign factors: The USDA expects the US soybean planting area in 2026 to be 85 million acres, higher than this year. In South America, the weather in Argentina affects soybean planting, while the harvest in Brazil is normal. From February 1 - 25, 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.25% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 12.11% and 16.05% respectively according to different data sources [73] - Import and crushing: Soybean inventory increased, and the rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 7.5 million tons, 2.5 million tons more than the previous week [73] - Inventory: As of February 20, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 0.50 million tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 70.64 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory of national oil mills increased to 113.80 million tons [73] - Spot: The spot prices of oils this week showed mixed trends. The palm oil spot price decreased by 0.27% compared with before the holiday, the rapeseed oil spot price increased by 1.06%, and the soybean oil spot price increased by 1.98% [73] 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - Palm oil: It will fluctuate weakly as the production reduction is not beyond expectations and the export data is weak [74] - Soybean oil: It will fluctuate as the global soybean supply is loose, the US biodiesel policy is about to be clear, and the domestic supply pressure decreases [74] - Rapeseed oil: It will fluctuate as the global rapeseed supply is loose, but there is still short - term support [74]