铜周报：铜价延续上涨趋势-20260301

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - and fundamental factors are intertwined with both bullish and bearish elements. Copper prices will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the domestic resumption of work progress and overseas policy trends [3] - The US has launched a $12 billion critical mineral reserve plan, and the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association has announced an increase in copper strategic reserves, which stimulates long - term buying [2] - S&P predicts that mine production will peak and then decline in 2030, and demand may increase by 50% in 2040, leading to a 10 million - ton shortage [2] - China's social inventory has exceeded 531,700 tons, LME inventory has accumulated to 253,600 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts have increased to 289,000 tons, highlighting the pressure on spot supply [2] - The resumption of work in domestic downstream industries is slow, the spot discount has widened to - 235 yuan, the import loss has expanded, and the import - export window has closed [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market - The latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 103,920 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.55%, a position of 203,799, and a weekly position increase of 56,168, and a trading volume of 157,481 [4] - The latest price of SHFE copper index - weighted is 104,073 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.38%, a position of 558,585, a weekly position decrease of 9,462, and a trading volume of 226,157 [4] - The latest price of international copper is 93,600 yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.04%, a position of 697, a weekly position decrease of 2,784, and a trading volume of 1,080 [4] - The latest price of LME copper 3 - month contract is $13,259, with a weekly increase of 3.28%, a position of 239,014, a weekly position decrease of 38,282, and a trading volume of 17,974 [4] - The latest price of COMEX copper is $602.5, with a weekly increase of 4.56%, a position of 127,225, a weekly position increase of 66,983, and a trading volume of 43,881 [4] Copper Spot Market - The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 101,795 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 480 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.47% [8] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 102,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 705 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.7% [8] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 102,040 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 760 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.75% [8] - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous is 102,130 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 700 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.69% [10] - The latest Shanghai Non - Ferrous premium/discount is - 260 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 200 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 333.33% [10] - The latest Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is - 220 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 175 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 388.89% [10] - The latest Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is - 190 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 150 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 375% [10] - The latest Yangtze River Non - Ferrous premium/discount is - 185 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 180 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3600% [10] - The latest LME copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is - $69.53/ton, with a weekly change of $25.89 and a weekly decrease rate of 27.13% [10] - The latest LME copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is - $116.76/ton, with a weekly change of - $21.26 and a weekly increase rate of 22.26% [10] Copper Advanced Data - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 704.01 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 32.55 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 4.42% [11] - The latest copper concentrate TC is - $51.06/ton, with a weekly change of $0.94 and a weekly decrease rate of 1.81% [11] - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 4.3248, with a weekly change of - 0.0076 and a weekly decrease rate of 0.18% [11] - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 2,854.01 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 264.45 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 8.48% [11] Copper Inventory - The latest total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 290,594 tons, with a weekly increase of 103,415 tons and a weekly increase rate of 55.25% [15] - The latest total international copper warehouse receipts are 14,218 tons, with a weekly decrease of 101 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 0.71% [15] - The latest SHFE copper inventory is 272,475 tons, with a weekly increase of 23,564 tons and a weekly increase rate of 9.47% [15] - The latest LME copper registered warehouse receipts are 240,825 tons, with a weekly increase of 25,475 tons and a weekly increase rate of 11.83% [15] - The latest LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 12,775 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,550 tons and a weekly increase rate of 24.94% [15] - The latest LME copper inventory is 253,600 tons, with a weekly increase of 28,025 tons and a weekly increase rate of 12.42% [17] - The latest COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts are 381,801 tons, with a weekly increase of 12,320 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.33% [17] - The latest COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 219,247 tons, with a weekly decrease of 8,482 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 3.72% [17] - The latest COMEX copper inventory is 601,048 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,838 tons and a weekly increase rate of 0.64% [17] - The latest copper mine port inventory is 475,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 33,000 tons and a weekly increase rate of 7.47% [17] - The latest social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [17] Copper Mid - stream Production - In December 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.1%, and the cumulative production was 14.72 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [19] - In December 2025, the monthly copper product production was 2.229 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%, and the cumulative production was 24.814 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [19] Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization - In January 2026, the total annual capacity of refined copper rod was 16.49 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 54.44%, the month - on - month difference was 3.34%, and the year - on - year difference was 5.93% [21] - In January 2026, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rod was 8.46 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 23.4%, the month - on - month difference was 2.81%, and the year - on - year difference was 6.32% [21] - In January 2026, the total annual capacity of copper plate and strip was 3.57 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 66.44%, the month - on - month difference was 1.96%, and the year - on - year difference was 10.11% [22] - In January 2026, the total annual capacity of copper rod was 2.2865 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 54.89%, the month - on - month difference was - 1.83%, and the year - on - year difference was 16.64% [22] - In January 2026, the total annual capacity of copper tube was 2.783 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 72.33%, the month - on - month difference was 10.74%, and the year - on - year difference was 5.58% [22] Copper Element Import - In December 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrate was 2.704298 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the cumulative import volume was 30.319797 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% [24] - In December 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 61,340 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 23%, and the cumulative import volume was 749,961 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 16% [24] - In December 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 258,549 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 30%, and the cumulative import volume was 3.344261 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 11% [24] - In December 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 238,977 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the cumulative import volume was 2.34258 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% [24] - In December 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 21.8%, and the cumulative import volume was 5.32 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [24]