策略周报：外部烽烟再起，稳健为主-20260301

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a cautious investment strategy due to rising external geopolitical risks, suggesting a focus on stability in the market [3][12] - In the bond market, there is an expectation of limited adjustment risks, with a forecast for the ten-year government bond yield to fluctuate around 1.8% [3][12] - The stock market is advised to focus on large-cap blue-chip and cyclical sectors, with a recommendation to monitor indices such as CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for potential opportunities [3][12] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic tourism during the Spring Festival, with 596 million trips taken and total spending reaching 803.48 billion, marking a historical high [9] - Recent policy adjustments in Shanghai aim to optimize housing regulations, including reducing purchase restrictions and improving housing loan policies [9] - The report notes that external factors, such as military actions in the Middle East, are impacting market sentiment and leading to increased volatility in overseas markets [10]