白糖月报：政策抑制糖价-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Brazil's sugar - cane crushing season is nearing its end, having little impact on the market. India's expected production cut is bullish for sugar prices, but with limited exports currently, raw sugar futures prices have changed little. The short - selling force has been largely consumed, and sugar prices show signs of bottoming out. If there are bullish factors later, the marginal impact will be significant [8][53]. - Around the Spring Festival, the domestic sugar market didn't change much, but trading funds were very active. At the end of the month, Zhengzhou sugar futures rose sharply due to the expected production cut in India, while raw sugar remained flat. This may be because long - position funds aimed to squeeze speculative short - sellers into stopping losses. If raw sugar fails to rise and there is no substantial bullish news from domestic policies, the strength of Zhengzhou sugar may not last and could return to a weak oscillation [8][53]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures Market Review - In February, the raw sugar index generally bottomed out, oscillated, and then moved sideways. After breaking below the 14 - cent mark, the price stabilized and rebounded, but the rebound was capped by the middle line of the weekly Bollinger Bands [14]. - The Zhengzhou sugar index showed a weak oscillation in the first three weeks of February and rose strongly in the last week. The price rebound was resisted by the 10 - week moving average, and on the monthly chart, it rebounded to the 5 - month moving average, which is a technical resistance level [14]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - In February, the spot price of sugar generally increased slightly. The spot price of Nanning sugar of Guangxi Nanhua Group rose from 5,295 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5,315 yuan/ton at the end, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan decreased from 5,180 yuan/ton to 5,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of processed sugar in Rizhao, Shandong rose from 5,420 yuan/ton to 5,480 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [16]. - In February, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts plus valid forecasts continued to increase. At the beginning of the month, there were 14,266, and at the end of the month, it increased to 15,949. Among them, registered warehouse receipts increased from 14,069 to 14,461, and valid forecasts decreased from 197 to 1,488 [16]. 3.3 Futures Market Structure Analysis - In February, both futures and spot markets were weak. The spot market continued to weaken, while futures first fell and then rose, resulting in a slight contraction of the basis. The basis of the 2605 contract against Nanning spot decreased from 88 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 67 yuan/ton at the end; the basis of the 2609 contract decreased from 73 yuan/ton to 48 yuan/ton [20]. - In February, the spread between the main May contract and the secondary September contract of Zhengzhou sugar changed little. The spread was - 15 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and - 16 yuan/ton at the end [20]. - In February, the spread between the London white sugar futures and the New York raw sugar futures main contracts widened slightly, reaching 98 US dollars/ton at the end of the month. The current spread is at the break - even point for raw sugar processing enterprises [22]. - As of February 17, the net short position of hedge funds and large speculators in raw sugar reached 253,592 contracts, a significant increase from the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, the total open interest of raw sugar futures increased significantly to 1,099,675 contracts [22]. 3.4 Production and Sales Situation - As of the end of January 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 6.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 602,800 tons. The single - month sugar production in January was 3.21 million tons, the highest in the same period in the past five years. Among them, Guangxi produced 4.029 million tons of blended sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 788,000 tons; Yunnan produced 984,100 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 147,000 tons; Guangdong produced 344,400 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 3,000 tons [26]. - As of the end of January 2026, the national cumulative sugar sales in this sugar - making season were 2.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.035 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 39.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.75 percentage points. The single - month sugar sales in January were 1.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 105,600 tons. The sales volume in January was relatively high in the same period in the past five years [29]. - At the end of January 2026, the national sugar industrial inventory was 4.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 432,200 tons, the highest in the past five years [32]. 3.5 Import and Export Situation - In December 2025, the imported sugar was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, the highest in the past five years. As of the end of December, the cumulative imported sugar in this sugar - making season was 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31 tons [35]. - Mutiantian Technology expects that the imported sugar volume in January 2026 will still reach about 300,000 tons, significantly higher than 60,000 tons in the same period last year, and most of it is expected to be within the quota or carried over from December for customs clearance in January [35]. - In February, the price of external raw sugar oscillated weakly at the bottom, while the domestic sugar price trended strongly. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets widened. At the beginning of February, the processing profit of Brazilian raw sugar within the quota was around 1,532 yuan/ton, and the profit outside the quota was around 485 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the processing profit of Brazilian raw sugar within the quota was 1,634 yuan/ton, and outside the quota was about 600 yuan/ton [35][36]. 3.6 Overseas Major Producing Countries' Production Situation - In the second half of January 2026 in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was only 5,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36%. The proportion of sugar - cane used for sugar production was only 6.63%, compared with 23.57% in the same period of the 2024/25 season. There were 22 production units in operation, including 4 sugar - cane crushing plants, 10 corn - based ethanol enterprises, and 8 flexible sugar plants. The total ethanol production reached 439.44 million liters, of which 90.67% was corn - based ethanol, with a production of 398.45 million liters, a year - on - year increase of 2.78%. The sugar - cane sugar yield (ATR) was 121.18 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 11.06% [40]. - As of the end of January 2026 in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil reached 40.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The sugar - making ratio remained at 50.74%, an increase compared with 48.14% in the same period of the previous season. The cumulative ethanol production was 31.71 billion liters, including 12.15 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol, a year - on - year slight increase of 0.54%, 19.56 billion liters of hydrous ethanol, a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%, and 7.65 billion liters of corn - based ethanol, a year - on - year significant increase of 13.05%. The cumulative sugar - cane ATR was 138.34 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.20% [40][43]. - At the end of February, the ethanol - to - sugar conversion price in the central - southern region of Brazil was 17.89 cents/pound, higher than the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract at 13.87 cents/pound. This means that sugar - cane factories are more willing to produce ethanol. The obvious premium of ethanol over sugar will reduce the sugar - making ratio, which is the main reason for the expected decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season [45]. - The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) estimated the net sugar production in the 2025 - 2026 sugar - making season to be about 29.3 million tons (a 12% increase from the previous year), but 1.65 million tons lower than the November estimate. The reasons for the production cut include lower - than - expected sugar - cane yield in Uttar Pradesh due to the variety replacement plan, and lower - than - expected unit - area yield in Maharashtra and Karnataka due to early sugar - cane flowering caused by abnormal weather [46]. 3.7 Exchange Rate Factors - In February, the US dollar index oscillated. The Brazilian real and the Thai baht appreciated slightly against the US dollar. At the end of the month, the US dollar to real exchange rate was 5.1376, compared with 5.2581 at the beginning; the US dollar to baht exchange rate was 30.8249, compared with 31.3839 at the beginning [51]. - In February, US core data showed a mixed but hawkish pattern. In terms of inflation, the CPI in January decreased to 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI was 2.5% year - on - year. However, the core PCE in December rebounded to 3%, and in January, it was still 2.8%. Super - core services and housing inflation were sticky, and new tariff policies brought the risk of rising prices of imported goods, making the Fed doubt the sustainability of inflation decline. In terms of employment, the non - farm payrolls in January increased by 130,000, far exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. The market now expects the first interest - rate cut to be postponed from June to July, and the number of expected interest - rate cuts this year has been reduced from 3 to 1 - 2 times. The Fed will maintain the interest rate unchanged in March, and the core PCE and employment data from March to April will determine whether the interest - rate cut rhythm can restart in the middle of the year [52]. 3.8 Market Outlook - From the fundamental perspective of raw sugar, Brazil's sugar - cane crushing season is ending, having little impact on the market. India's expected production cut is bullish for sugar prices, but with limited exports currently, raw sugar futures prices have changed little. The short - selling force has been largely consumed, and sugar prices show signs of bottoming out. If there are bullish factors later, the marginal impact will be significant [53]. - For the domestic sugar market, there were not many changes around the Spring Festival, but trading funds were very active. At the end of the month, Zhengzhou sugar futures rose sharply due to the expected production cut in India, while raw sugar remained flat. This may be because long - position funds aimed to squeeze speculative short - sellers into stopping losses. If raw sugar fails to rise and there is no substantial bullish news from domestic policies, the strength of Zhengzhou sugar may not last and could return to a weak oscillation [53].