大越期货油脂早报-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8440, the basis is 214, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is neutral [2] - Main positions: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8770, the basis is - 10, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [3] - Main positions: The short positions of the main palm oil contract increased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9860, the basis is 680, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is neutral [4] - Main positions: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]