LPG早报-20260302

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the futures price increased mainly due to geopolitical factors and a Saudi Arabian device failure. The basis was -342 (-76), and the April - May spread was 73 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 6679 lots (-83). The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai civilian LPG at 4200 (+50). The FEI monthly spread was 47.5 USD (+27.5), and the oil - gas price ratio decreased significantly. The March CP official price was lower than expected, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+0). The domestic and international markets were strong first and then weak, with PG - FEI c1 at 43.9 (-5.5). The CIF premium for propane in East China was 107 (+14); the FOB premiums for AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 20 (-7), 78.15 (+13), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -22 (+20). The spot profit of PDH increased slightly, while the futures profit decreased significantly. The port inventory ratio was 33.12% (+2.77 pct). The production - sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 100%, and the external supply was 57.27 tons (+1.74%). The PDH operating rate was 63.23% (-1.61 pct). Chemical demand was resilient, and combustion demand would gradually enter the off - season as the weather warmed. The impact of the Saudi Juaymah corridor facility failure on domestic imports might be relatively limited; the Iranian situation was the biggest risk factor. The domestic basis was weak, the April - May spread was moderately low, and with the escalation of geopolitical risks, the futures price was expected to be strong in the short term; the tight supply situation of overseas propane in April was difficult to ease, and the strategy of shorting the domestic - international spread could still be considered in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Market Data - From February 13 to February 27, 2026, the prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as the CFR price of propane in South China, CIF price of propane in Japan, CP forecast contract price, price of ether - after carbon four in Shandong, and price of alkylated oil in Shandong showed certain changes. The daily changes were 5, -15, 20, -1, 7, 1, 10, 0 respectively, and the paper import profit changed by 1, and the basis of the main contract changed by 32 [1] Market Analysis - The futures price increase last week was affected by geopolitical factors and a Saudi Arabian device failure. The basis, month - spread, warehouse receipts, and other indicators changed. The FEI monthly spread increased, and the oil - gas price ratio decreased. The 3 - month CP official price was lower than expected. The domestic and international markets showed a trend of being strong first and then weak. The premiums of different regions also changed [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The port inventory ratio increased by 2.77 pct to 33.12%. The production - sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 100%, and the external supply increased by 1.74% to 57.27 tons. The PDH operating rate decreased by 1.61 pct to 63.23%. Chemical demand was resilient, and combustion demand would gradually enter the off - season as the weather warmed [1] Risk and Strategy - The impact of the Saudi Juaymah corridor facility failure on domestic imports might be relatively limited. The Iranian situation was the biggest risk factor, and the situation of Iranian docks, energy facilities, and the Strait of Hormuz needed to be continuously monitored. The domestic basis was weak, the April - May spread was moderately low, and with the escalation of geopolitical risks, the futures price was expected to be strong in the short term. The tight supply situation of overseas propane in April was difficult to ease, and the strategy of shorting the domestic - international spread could still be considered in the short term [1]