大越期货纯碱周报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated upward. The closing price of the main contract SA2605 increased by 3.83% compared to the previous week, reaching 1194 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, up 3.60% from the previous week [2]. - In terms of supply, some soda ash enterprises resumed from maintenance. It is expected that the output will increase to 800,000 tons next week, with a capacity utilization rate of 86%, and the overall supply is abundant. On the demand side, the downstream demand recovered after the festival, but the procurement enthusiasm was poor, maintaining just - in - time low - price replenishment. The consumption was moderately weak. The daily melting volume of float glass was 148,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 88,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1600 tons [2]. - As of February 27, the inventory of soda ash in factories across the country was 1.8944 million tons, a 19.29% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period of history. Overall, the conflict between the US and Iran may boost the sentiment of the overall commodities. The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected that soda ash will be driven to rise in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1150 yuan/ton to 1194 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.83%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1110 yuan/ton to 1150 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.60%. The main basis increased from - 40 yuan/ton to - 44 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.00% [7]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe market was 1150 yuan/ton, a 3.60% increase from the previous week [13]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 162.25 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 69.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash was at a historical low [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 85.04%. The weekly output of soda ash was 790,900 tons, including 423,000 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [19][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were plans for new soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual expected production of 1 million tons [22]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 61.12% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 148,600 tons, and the operating rate was 70.61% [28]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories across the country was 1.8944 million tons, a 19.29% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [34]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 3.6 Influencing Factors Summary - Positive factors: There was less cold - repair of downstream float glass, and the output remained stable [4]. - Negative factors: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, the terminal demand declined, the inventory was at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry had not been effectively improved. The second - phase production line of Yuanxing Energy increased its operating load, and there was no expectation of new maintenance, so the output was expected to remain at a high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash reduced production, and the demand for soda ash weakened [5][6].