大越期货碳酸锂期货周报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 05 contract showed an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 143,000 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 176,040 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 23.10%. It is expected that next week, the supply side will continue to increase production, the demand side will decrease, and the cost will remain low. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Supply Side: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,822 tons, higher than the historical average. Among them, the production from spodumene was 13,484 tons, a 12.14% increase from the previous period and higher than the historical average; the production from lepidolite was 2,812 tons, a 5.06% decrease and lower than the historical average; the production from salt lakes was 3,290 tons, an 8.22% increase and higher than the historical average; the production from recycling was 2,236 tons, a 3.61% increase and higher than the historical average [4]. - Demand Side: In January 2026, the demand for lithium carbonate was 124,683 physical tons, a 4.17% decrease from the previous period. The predicted demand for next month is 110,467 physical tons, a 11.40% increase. In January 2026, the export volume of lithium carbonate was 410 physical tons, a 55.04% decrease. The predicted export volume for next month is 208 physical tons, a 49.26% increase. In February 2026, the production of power batteries was 169.01 MWH, a 12.88% decrease but higher than the historical average. The production of ternary batteries was 26.39 MWH, a 16.06% decrease and lower than the historical average. The production of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 134.03 MWH, a 12.96% decrease but higher than the historical average. In January 2026, the installed capacity of power batteries was 42,000 MWH, a 57.18% decrease but higher than the historical average. The installed capacity of ternary batteries was 9,400 MWH, a 48.35% decrease but higher than the historical average. The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 32,700 MWH, a 59.02% decrease but higher than the historical average. In February 2026, the production of energy storage batteries was 56.07 GWH, a 11.02% decrease, and the predicted production for next month is a 16.43% increase. In January 2026, the total winning bid capacity of energy storage batteries was 23.1 GWH, a 46.29% decrease but higher than the historical average [5]. - Cost Side: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 168,303 yuan/ton, a 0.55% decrease from the previous day, with a production income of 1,457 yuan/ton, showing a profit. The cost of purchased lepidolite was 164,301 yuan/ton, a 1.38% decrease from the previous day, with a production income of 1,790 yuan/ton, showing a profit. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, and the enthusiasm for production scheduling is average. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong motivation for production scheduling [6]. - Inventory Side: The inventory of smelters was 18,382 tons, a 8.64% increase from the previous period but lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 40,021 tons, a 10.04% decrease but higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 41,690 tons, a 0.41% increase and higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 100,093 tons, a 2.75% decrease and lower than the historical average [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Lithium Ore: The price, production, import volume, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore are presented through various charts, and the supply - demand balance table of lithium ore shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance from January 2025 to January 2026 [15][18]. - Supply - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from different sources are presented through various charts, and the supply - demand balance table of lithium carbonate shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance from January 2025 to January 2026 [22][28]. - Supply - Lithium Hydroxide: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide are presented through various charts, and the supply - demand balance table of lithium hydroxide shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance from January 2025 to January 2026 [31][34]. - Lithium Compound Cost and Profit: The cost, profit, and processing cost composition of various lithium compounds such as spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and recycled materials are presented through various charts [37][40][43]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventory, is presented through various charts [46]. - Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery: The price, production, installed capacity, and export volume of power batteries are presented through various charts [48]. - Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage: The inventory, winning bid situation, production, and cost of energy storage batteries are presented through various charts [50]. - Demand - Ternary Precursor: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are presented through various charts [53][56]. - Demand - Ternary Material: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, production, import, export, and inventory of ternary materials are presented through various charts [60][62]. - Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented through various charts [64][67]. - Demand - New Energy Vehicle: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, zero - batch ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles are presented through various charts [71][77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend. The chart shows the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages of the LC main contract, and it is expected that next week, the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [80][81].