大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260302

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, but downstream sentiment was cautious with only essential purchases and overall trading was light. Supply increased in January, and inventories at home and abroad continued to build up, indicating sufficient market supply. The nickel ore market had a strong bullish sentiment, with a contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and poor trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel iron prices rebounded, supporting the cost line and causing a slight upward shift. Stainless steel consumption was poor during the Spring Festival, and inventory increased significantly. If inventory digestion is not effective, it may suppress price rebounds. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, but there was a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season. The Israel - Iran conflict over the weekend may drive up nickel prices due to increased risk aversion. Overall, the outlook for nickel is bearish, but the price of nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, nickel iron prices rebounded, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventory continued to rise. The outlook is neutral, and the price of stainless steel 2604 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures Prices: On February 27, the price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 141,560 yuan, up 520 yuan from the previous day; the price of the London nickel electronic contract was 17,695, down 35 from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,205 yuan, down 60 yuan from the previous day [9]. - Spot Prices: On February 27, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 142,650 yuan, down 1,050 yuan from the previous day; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 146,700 yuan, down 1,100 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 138,650 yuan, down 950 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 141,300 yuan, down 800 yuan. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan, 15,000 yuan, 15,000 yuan, and 15,050 yuan respectively [9]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - LME and SHFE Inventory: As of February 27, LME nickel inventory was 287,976 tons, a decrease of 1,530 tons from the previous day; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 53,131 tons, a decrease of 27 tons. The total inventory was 341,107 tons, a decrease of 1,557 tons [12]. - Domestic Inventory: As of February 27, SHFE nickel inventory was 60,791 tons, with futures inventory of 53,131 tons, an increase of 2,016 tons and 673 tons respectively [11]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Regional Inventory: On February 27, the inventory in Wuxi was 646,700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 377,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,172,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series was 728,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81,600 tons [16]. - Futures Inventory: On February 27, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 52,055 tons, a decrease of 8,695 tons from the previous day [17]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - Nickel Ore Prices: On February 27, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 70.5 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 30 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 7.75 US dollars per ton and 8.75 US dollars per ton respectively [20]. - Nickel Iron Prices: On February 27, the price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 1,077.72 yuan per nickel point, an increase of 4.29 yuan from the previous day; the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,725 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day [20]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - On February 27, the traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,909 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 14,089 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel iron and pure nickel was 18,159 yuan [22]. Nickel Import Cost Estimation - The converted import price was 138,800 yuan per ton [25].