油脂油料早报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - Analysts predict that the soybean crushing volume of US soybean processors in January may reach 226.3 million bushels, down 1.5% from December but up 6.5% from January 2025, which will be the highest January crushing volume in history and the third - highest monthly crushing volume on record. The estimated range of crushing volume is 225.9 million - 227.0 million bushels, with a median of 226.2 million bushels [1] - As of January 31, the average estimate of US soybean oil inventory by 4 analysts is 2.418 billion pounds, with a range of 2.300 billion - 2.500 billion pounds and a median of 2.435 billion pounds. This estimate is 11.0% higher than that at the end of December and 33.1% higher than that at the end of January 2025 [1] - Due to adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul, Safras & Mercado lowered the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to 177.72 million tons, while Rabobank raised the estimate to 181 million tons. Safras predicts Brazil's soybean exports to be 105 million tons and crushing volume to be 60 million tons, while Rabobank predicts exports to reach 112 million tons [1] - Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in March to $938.87 per ton, and the export tariff increased to $124 per ton, with an additional 10% export special tax [1] - From February 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 718,603 tons, a 3.77% decrease compared to the same period last month [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce ruled that the anti - dumping duty rate for Canadian companies is 5.9%, and the final anti - dumping measures will be implemented from March 1 for a 5 - year period [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - The predicted US soybean crushing volume in January is 226.3 million bushels, with a decrease compared to December but an increase compared to January 2025 [1] - The estimated US soybean oil inventory as of January 31 shows significant growth compared to previous periods [1] - Different institutions have different forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production [1] - Indonesia raised the reference price and export tariff of crude palm oil in March [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1 - 25, 2026 decreased compared to the same period last month [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce issued the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [1] Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions showed fluctuations from February 13 - 27, 2026 [2]