大越期货沥青期货周报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 06 contract showed an upward trend, with the opening price on Monday at 3315 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 3346 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.94%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, while the supply will increase, and the cost support will strengthen. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The 06 contract rose this week, with the opening price on Monday at 3315 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 3346 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.94% [5]. - Supply: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). This week, the domestic sample capacity utilization rate of petroleum asphalt was 23.0705%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 130,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%. The sample enterprise production was 385,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.189 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.80%. It is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [5]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 21.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 3.3%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 0%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 4%, a month - on - month increase of 4.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 182.83 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.20%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 64.8129 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected to support the market in the short term [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.096 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.93%. The in - plant inventory was 729,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.34%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 770,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%. The social inventory and in - plant inventory continued to accumulate, while the port inventory continued to decline [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 06 contract showed an upward trend. It is expected that next week, it may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [106].