大越期货生猪期货早报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of live pigs in the southern region of China has decreased in the short - term after the end of the secondary fattening period, and the demand for cured meat and sausages has also ended, resulting in a decrease in both the supply of pigs and meat. The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but the pork consumption has entered the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the short - term overall consumption is still not optimistic. The market supply is expected to decrease and the demand is weak, and the pig price may enter a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. The price of the LH2605 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,300 - 11,700 [10]. - The live pig spot price is in a short - term weak state, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and fall in the short term, then bottom out and rebound or maintain an oscillating pattern in the medium term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of live pigs is expected to decrease, and the spot price is in a short - term weak state but may maintain an oscillating pattern in the medium term. The futures price may oscillate and fall in the short term and then bottom out and rebound or maintain an oscillating pattern. The short - term decline space of the spot price is limited [12]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic live pig consumption market is affected by the end of the peak demand season, and the end of secondary fattening in the south has led to a decrease in live pig supply. The spot price is in a short - term weak state and may maintain an oscillating pattern in the medium term [12]. - After the peak demand season, the live pig market has entered a stage of reduced supply and weak demand. The short - term decline space of the price is limited, and it may bottom out and rebound to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The profit of domestic live pig breeding has shown small fluctuations in losses recently, and the enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter has increased in the short term. The situation of increased supply and weak demand suppresses the short - term expectations of live pig futures and spot prices [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The domestic live pig supply is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the domestic pig - grain ratio has fallen to a historical low range [13]. - Bearish factors: The domestic live pig demand is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the year - on - year decrease in domestic live pig inventory is lower than expected [13]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the live pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of December 31, the live pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of December, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [10]. - As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [28]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is increasing [10].