大越期货棉花早报-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term bullish factors of Zhengzhou cotton are concentrated, and the market needs adjustment. In terms of fundamentals, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, the US tariffs have been reduced to some extent, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial to textile exports. Cotton investors with previous long positions can take profits and reduce their holdings, and the market will mainly fluctuate widely [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No information provided in the report 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is under regulation, with an expected reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA February report, the production in the 2025/2026 season is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%; and imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/2026 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bullish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,713 yuan, and the basis is 1318 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory for the 2025/2026 season in February to be 8.29 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, the net long position is increasing, and the main trend is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The short - term bullish factors of Zhengzhou cotton are concentrated, and the market needs adjustment. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, the US tariffs have been reduced to some extent, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial to textile exports. Cotton investors with previous long positions can take profits and reduce their holdings, and the market will mainly fluctuate widely [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Bullish Factors: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is under regulation, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories before the Spring Festival. The export tariffs to the US have been reduced. Sino - US relations have eased. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming [5]. - Bearish Factors: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton has been put on the market. Currently, it is the traditional consumption off - season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance: In the 2025/2026 season, the total global cotton production is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. There are different changes in production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory in various countries [9][10]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance: In the 2025/2026 season, the area is 3041.385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 2539.956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 1583.577 million tons, the import volume is 971.442 million tons, the consumption is 2500.778 million tons, the export volume is 971.412 million tons, the ending inventory is 1622.785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [12]. - Domestic Cotton Supply - Demand Balance: In the 2025/2026 season, the beginning inventory is 7.88 million tons, the sown area is 2.979 million hectares, the harvested area is 2.979 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 2229 kg/ha, the production is 6.64 million tons, the import is 1.4 million tons, the consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the report