大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that the official manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East, especially the military offensive between the US and Israel in Iran, has led to the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a gap - up opening of the external crude oil market. This situation provides significant short - term support for the valuation of polyolefins. Both LLDPE and PP are expected to have a strong performance today due to cost support and the gradual recovery of downstream demand [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: The macro - economic situation is positive, and the Middle East situation supports the valuation of polyolefins. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of work and demand recovery of downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector are slow, while the packaging film has low - load rigid demand and is expected to recover rapidly around the Lantern Festival. The pipe sector is gradually starting up. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6500 (-100), and the overall fundamentals are positive [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 97, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.5%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.7 tons (+25.9), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to gap up and fluctuate. The Iranian situation disturbs oil prices, providing strong cost support. With neutral inventory and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, LLDPE is expected to have a strong performance today [4]. - Likely Factors: Cost support and the rise of crude oil prices driven by the Iranian situation are positive factors. The main bearish logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation is positive, and the Middle East situation supports the valuation of polyolefins. In terms of supply and demand, the rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable, the demand in the north recovers relatively fast but with limited increment, and the BOPP sector resumes work quickly but faces some finished - product inventory pressure. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6580 (-100), and the overall fundamentals are positive [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 31, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.5%, which is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 74 tons (+34.9), which is neutral [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the position turns short, which is bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to gap up and fluctuate. The Iranian situation disturbs oil prices, providing strong cost support. With neutral inventory and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, PP is expected to have a strong performance today [7]. - Likely Factors: Cost support and the rise of crude oil prices driven by the Iranian situation are positive factors. The main bearish logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally show an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreases. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also show an upward trend, and the import dependence gradually decreases. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].