大越期货原油周报-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation has escalated sharply due to the large - scale joint military strike by the US and Israel against Iran, and Iran's counter - attack. The oil tanker transportation in the Strait of Hormuz has come to a standstill, and the Red Sea Houthi armed forces have resumed attacks on shipping. Oil prices face a short - term risk of skyrocketing. It is recommended to operate in the 490 - 550 range in the short term and wait and see in the long term [3][4][6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Review - Last week, crude oil continued to fluctuate under the influence of geopolitical factors and rose significantly at the end of the session. The price of the main light crude oil futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $67.29 per barrel, up 1.48% for the week; the price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract closed at $73.21 per barrel, up 2.77% for the week; the price of the main SC crude oil futures contract in China closed at 502.4 yuan per barrel, up 3.16% for the week [3] - The market has been concerned about the progress of the US - Iran situation. Although two rounds of indirect talks have been held, no substantial progress has been made. The situation between the US and Iran has become more tense near the weekend, which has stimulated the continuous rise of oil prices. Geopolitical events have continued to attract long - term capital inflows [3] - The US and Israel launched a large - scale joint military strike against Iran on February 28, with the goal of overthrowing the Iranian regime. Iran counter - attacked with missiles and drones, and the Middle East situation has escalated sharply [3] - OPEC+ originally planned to approve a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in April, but after the military conflict, member states may approve a production increase plan three to four times the original scale. However, the production increase capacity is restricted, and most of the remaining production capacity is concentrated in Saudi Arabia [4] - Due to the military conflict, the oil tanker transportation in the Strait of Hormuz has come to a standstill, and many oil companies and energy traders have suspended oil and fuel shipping through the strait. The interruption of the Strait of Hormuz may impact the global energy transportation [4] 2. Related Information - Not provided in the report 3. Outlook - The Middle East situation has escalated, the oil tanker transportation in the Strait of Hormuz has stopped, and the Houthi armed forces in the Red Sea have resumed attacks on shipping. Oil prices face a short - term risk of skyrocketing. It is recommended to operate in the 490 - 550 range in the short term and wait and see in the long term [6][7] 4. Fundamental Data - Spot Weekly Prices: The prices of various types of crude oil such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. have increased to varying degrees, with the increase rate ranging from 0.01% to 2.24% [9] - Cushing Inventory: The Cushing inventory has fluctuated, with an increase of 881,000 barrels as of February 20 [10] - EIA Inventory: The EIA inventory has also fluctuated, with an increase of 15.989 million barrels as of February 20 [11] 5.持仓 Data - CFTC Fund Net Long Positions: As of February 24, the net long positions of WTI crude oil held by speculators increased by 31,369 contracts to 172,712 contracts [3][17] - ICE Fund Net Long Positions: As of February 24, the net long positions of Brent crude oil futures increased by 57,766 contracts to 320,952 contracts [3][19]