大越期货棉花周报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, cotton prices hit a new high, with relatively favorable fundamentals. The US court halted the current tariffs, effectively reducing export tariffs to the US. However, after the price increase, some early low - position long positions took profits and left the market, weakening the upward momentum. - The cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is expected to be reduced by more than 10%. According to the USDA February report, the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. In December, China's textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%, and 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. - In the short term, the positive factors for Zhengzhou cotton futures have been fully reflected, and the market needs adjustment. Fundamentally, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, US tariffs have been reduced, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial for textile exports. Investors with long positions in cotton can reduce their positions to take profits, and the market will mainly fluctuate widely. [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day Review - After the holiday, cotton prices hit a new high. The US court halted current tariffs, reducing export tariffs to the US. Some early low - position long positions took profits after the price increase, weakening the upward momentum. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is expected to be reduced by more than 10%. There are various data on global and Chinese cotton production, consumption, imports, and exports. [4] 3.2 Daily Prompt - Positive factors include the expected reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 by over 10%, pre - holiday downstream replenishment, reduced export tariffs to the US, improved Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April". Negative factors include the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional consumption off - season. [5][6] 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. There are also detailed data on production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory of major cotton - producing and consuming countries such as China, India, the US, etc. [9][10] - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: For the 2025/2026 season, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, the import volume is 9.71442 million tons, the consumption is 25.00778 million tons, the export volume is 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65. [12] - Ministry of Agriculture Data: For the 25/26 season, China's cotton sown area is 2.979 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 2,229 kg/ha, the production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound. [14] 3.5 Position Data - No information provided.