大越期货白糖周报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, domestic white sugar prices oscillated upward, breaking through the previous oscillation range and showing a short - term upward trend from the bottom. Technically, there is a trend of a right - side market. Downstream enterprises started restocking after the festival, market demand recovered, and some market funds flowed from previously over - hyped high - priced commodities to low - priced ones. So, the short - term view on white sugar is oscillating upward [5][8]. - For the 26/27 sugar season, different institutions predict a reduction in the global sugar surplus compared to the 25/26 season. For example, Covrig Analytics predicts the surplus will shrink to 140,000 tons, and Green Pool predicts 156,000 tons [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors for the white sugar market. Positive factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, a new - season global supply surplus, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Sugar Supply and Demand Forecast: Different institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons. For example, ISO predicts a 163,000 - ton surplus in the 25/26 season, and Green Pool predicts a 156,000 - ton surplus in the 26/27 season [5][8][31]. - Domestic Sugar Production and Sales: As of the end of January 2026, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, and imported 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [5][8]. - Sugar - related Prices: The international sugar price is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton. The cost of imported Brazilian raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff and the corresponding profit are also provided in the report [33][37]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content