光伏产业周报-20260302

Report Overview - Report Title: Photovoltaic Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: March 1, 2026 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand weakness persists, with low demand dominating market sentiment. Cost support and inventory reduction provide bottom - end resilience, and it may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [3]. - Polysilicon: It will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Supply contraction and policy benefits support the bottom, but high inventory and weak demand restrict the rebound. Wait for the demand recovery and inventory reduction progress in March [4]. 3. Summary by Category Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals - Southwest furnace starts decreased, and leading enterprises in the northwest shut down furnaces, causing a significant drop in weekly output and supporting the cost bottom [3]. - Social inventory decreased by 0.88% to 55.7 tons week - on - week, and sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week, alleviating some oversupply pressure [3]. - Downstream procurement in polysilicon and organic silicon was sluggish, with obvious resistance to high - priced resources, and post - holiday trading recovery was slow [3]. - Large northwest manufacturers plan to resume production in March. If realized, it may increase supply pressure and suppress price rebounds [3]. - Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract was 8395 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change [5]. - The trading volume of the industrial silicon main contract was 266,281 lots, with a weekly increase of 58,226 lots (27.99%) [5]. - The open interest of the industrial silicon main contract was 328,416 lots, with a weekly increase of 42,523 lots (14.87%) [5]. Polysilicon - Fundamentals - In February, polysilicon output decreased by 0.5% month - on - month. Leading enterprises' production cuts were implemented, and the scale of resumption in March was limited, easing supply - side pressure [4]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation held an anti - "involution" competition symposium, and the photovoltaic electricity price reform policy was introduced. The market has expectations for industry self - discipline and demand improvement [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory reached 328,500 tons (a 2.4% week - on - week increase), and silicon wafer inventory was 28.32 GW (a 3.77% week - on - week increase). Slow downstream inventory reduction suppressed prices [4]. - After the holiday, the resumption of production in the silicon wafer and cell segments was slow, with procurement mainly for rigid demand. The silicon wafer transaction price dropped by 4% - 5% week - on - week, suppressing the willingness to purchase silicon materials [4]. - Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract was 46,495 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 180 yuan (0.39%) and a weekly decrease of 2,520 yuan (- 5.14%) [6]. - The trading volume of the polysilicon main contract was 9,639 lots, with a daily increase of 1,173 lots (13.86%) and a weekly increase of 5,099 lots (112.31%) [6]. - The open interest of the polysilicon main contract was 40,197 lots, with a daily increase of 272 lots (0.68%) and a weekly increase of 2,495 lots (6.62%) [6]. Photovoltaic Industry Chain - Upstream - Industrial Silicon - Provided historical weekly production data of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [9][11] - Mid - stream - Polysilicon - Provided historical weekly production data of domestic polysilicon and monthly production data of overseas polysilicon [13] - Provided historical data on China's polysilicon net exports [15] - Downstream - Silicon Wafers - Provided historical weekly production and monthly capacity utilization rate data of Chinese silicon wafers [17] - Provided historical monthly net export data of Chinese single - crystal and poly - crystal silicon wafers [18] - Downstream - Solar Cells - Provided historical monthly production and capacity utilization rate data of Chinese solar cells, as well as capacity utilization rate data of different types of solar cells (Topcon, BC, HJT) [20][22] - Provided historical monthly export data of Chinese solar cells [23] - Terminal - Photovoltaic Modules - Provided historical monthly production, new installation volume, and net export data of Chinese photovoltaic modules [25][27] Inventory - Provided historical data on industrial silicon weekly social inventory, warehouse receipt quantity, Chinese polysilicon weekly total inventory, silicon wafer weekly inventory, photovoltaic cell external sales factory weekly inventory, and photovoltaic module weekly finished - product inventory [28][29][30][31][33] Profit - Provided historical profit data of industrial silicon, polysilicon, Chinese silicon wafers, and Chinese single - crystal N - type solar cell process [34][35][37]