工业硅期货早报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 69,000 tons, a 1.47% increase week-on-week. The demand was 61,000 tons, a 8.95% decrease week-on-week. The cost support in Xinjiang has increased. The expected price range for industrial silicon 2605 is between 8,310 - 8,480 [6][7][8]. - For polysilicon, the production last week was 19,800 tons, a 1.49% decrease week-on-week. The forecasted production for March is 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase month-on-month. The overall demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future. The expected price range for polysilicon 2605 is between 45,495 - 47,495 [13][14][15]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production. The main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [18][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 69,000 tons, a 1.47% increase week-on-week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 61,000 tons, a 8.95% decrease week-on-week. The demand remains sluggish. The inventory of polysilicon is 344,000 tons, at a high level; the inventory of silicone is 47,200 tons, at a low level; the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 67,000 tons, at a high level [7]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, with no change week-on-week. The cost support during the dry season has increased [7]. - Other Indicators: The basis on February 27th shows that the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China is 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is 755 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory is 560,000 tons, a 0.54% increase week-on-week; the sample enterprise inventory is 202,600 tons, a 0.90% increase week-on-week; the main port inventory is 138,000 tons, a 0.71% decrease week-on-week. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closes below the MA20. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is decreasing [7][11]. - Expectation: The supply schedule is increasing and remains at a low level. The demand recovery is emerging, and the cost support is rising. The price of industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate between 8,310 - 8,480 [8]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 19,800 tons, a 1.49% decrease week-on-week. The forecasted production for March is 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase month-on-month [13]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.35 GW, a 12.93% increase week-on-week, and the inventory was 310,600 tons, a 3.32% increase week-on-week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for March is 49.01 GW, a 10.70% increase month-on-month. The production of battery cells in February was 37.09 GW, a 10.49% decrease month-on-month. The inventory of external sales factories of battery cells last week was 9.31 GW, a 1.52% increase week-on-week. Currently, battery cell production is profitable. The production schedule for March is 46.36 GW, a 24.99% increase month-on-month. The production of components in February was 29.3 GW, a 16.76% decrease month-on-month. The expected production of components in March is 41.39 GW, a 41.26% increase month-on-month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a 51.73% decrease month-on-month, and the European monthly inventory is 38.41 GW, a 12.30% increase month-on-month. Currently, component production is profitable [14]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,720 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,280 yuan/ton [14]. - Other Indicators: The basis on February 27th shows that the price of N - type dense material is 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is 5,505 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The weekly inventory is 344,000 tons, a 1.43% decrease week-on-week, at a high level compared to the same period in history. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closes below the MA20. The net position of the main force is long, and the long position is decreasing [16]. - Expectation: The short - term supply schedule is increasing, and it is expected to回调 in the medium term. The silicon wafer production in the demand side continues to increase, the battery cell production increases in the short term and is expected to回调 in the medium term, and the component production increases in the short term and is expected to回调 in the medium term. The overall demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future. The cost support is weakening. The price of polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate between 45,495 - 47,495 [15]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of different contracts of industrial silicon futures show different changes. For example, the 01 contract increased by 0.56% to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract increased by 0.72% to 8,395 yuan/ton. The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in the spot market also have certain fluctuations. The social inventory is 560,000 tons, a 0.54% increase week-on-week [22]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of different contracts of polysilicon futures also show different trends. For example, the 03 contract increased by 0.68% to 45,800 yuan/ton. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in the downstream also have corresponding changes [24]. 3.3 Downstream Market 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate is 63.28%, with no change week-on-week. The weekly production is 41,600 tons, a 1.19% decrease week-on-week. The monthly inventory is 47,200 tons, a 11.28% decrease month-on-month. The profit is 3,310 yuan/ton [22]. - Other Products: The prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remain stable [22]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 23,800 yuan/ton, with no change. The import profit is - 88 yuan/ton. The monthly production of primary aluminum alloy ingots is 303,300 tons, a 0.26% decrease month-on-month, and the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 610,000 tons, a 4.69% decrease month-on-month [22]. - Inventory and Production: The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 67,000 tons, a 1.03% decrease week-on-week. The weekly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 31,350 tons, a 2.96% increase week-on-week [22][23]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon - Cost and Price: The average cost of the polysilicon industry is 40,720 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type polysilicon is 52,000 yuan/ton, with no change [24]. - Inventory and Production: The total weekly inventory is 344,000 tons, a 1.43% decrease week-on-week. The monthly production in February is 293,000 tons, a 16.76% decrease month-on-month [24]. - Downstream Products: The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also have corresponding changes [24].