瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber producing areas enter the seasonal supply off - season with firm raw material prices. After the Spring Festival, the arrival and warehousing volume decreased significantly, but the unexpected increase in rubber prices made downstream enterprises more risk - averse in terms of funds, with only a small amount of replenishment for rigid demand. The total outbound volume remained at a low level. The general trade inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate, but the accumulation rate narrowed compared with the previous period. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to recover. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,200 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 17,245 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 90 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 145 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,870 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 105 yuan/ton; the 4 - 5 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 95 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,375 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2] - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 170,621 lots, with a daily decrease of 3,594 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 31,588 lots, with a daily decrease of 6,492 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 41,368 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,375 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,340 lots, with a daily increase of 524 lots [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 115,070 tons, with a daily increase of 600 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 50,601 tons, with no daily change [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,950 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 17,200 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,880 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,830 yuan/ton, with no daily change [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 12,800 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 400 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 12,600 yuan/ton, with no daily change [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 205 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,365 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 14,261 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 54 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 496 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 36 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 72.01 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.12 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 64.05 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 3.16 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue water) is 68.3 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.3 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 6 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 2 US dollars/ton [2] - The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, with an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, with an increase of 94,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 29.17%, with a weekly increase of 14.97 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 34.56%, with a weekly increase of 20.32 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.04 days, with a weekly decrease of 0.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 44.09 days, with a weekly decrease of 0.34 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a monthly decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a monthly increase of 1.29 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 24.07%, with a daily decrease of 1.73 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.37%, with a daily decrease of 0.65 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.26%, with a daily increase of 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.27%, with a daily increase of 0.34 percentage points [2] Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2] - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons, an increase of 1.82%. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 6.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.39 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 8.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.02 percentage points [2] - As of February 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 30.77%, a month - on - month increase of 18.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 26.04%, a month - on - month increase of 13.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 42.11 percentage points [2]