Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The recent downstream operating rate has decreased, domestic butadiene supply has increased while demand has decreased, but the net import is expected to decline, and port inventories are fluctuating at a high level. The processing profit of the butadiene rubber industry has improved, and the continuous increase in the operation of raw material butadiene has led to an increase in butadiene rubber production. During the Spring Festival holiday, factors such as logistics and downstream closures have jointly affected the inventory growth of domestic butadiene rubber production and trading enterprises. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly rebounded month - on - month. After the festival, many tire enterprises have gradually resumed work, and production scheduling has gradually increased, boosting the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises to rise significantly month - on - month. The short - term capacity utilization rate is still in the stage of gradual recovery, which will drive the capacity utilization rate to continue to recover. Although the rigid demand consumption gradually recovers after the downstream gradually resumes work, the domestic butadiene rubber supply is expected to have no significant reduction in the short term. Coupled with sufficient spot circulation resources and high inventory, the inventory pressure is expected to ease slowly. Affected by the rebound in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation, the br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 14,000 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 13,465 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 835 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 39,385, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,367. The 4 - 5 spread of synthetic rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The total number of butadiene rubber warehouse receipts is 18,540 tons, with no month - on - month change [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,450 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,400 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,400 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,550 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 145 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 72.48 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 1.73 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 67.02 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 1.81 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 710 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the CFR Japan price of naphtha is 636.63 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.13 US dollars/ton; the CFR China price of butadiene is 1,270 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 10,275 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 85 yuan/ton. The weekly butadiene production capacity is 159,300 tons, with no month - on - month change; the weekly butadiene capacity utilization rate is 76.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points. The terminal port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation is 51.69%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63 percentage points [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 149,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 81.74%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.11 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 459 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 309 yuan/ton. The terminal social inventory of butadiene rubber is 53,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19,600 tons; the terminal manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 45,150 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 17,350 tons; the terminal trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 8,320 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,210 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 34.56%, with a month - on - month increase of 20.32 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 29.17%, with a month - on - month increase of 14.97 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces. The terminal inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.04 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.82 days; the terminal inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 44.09 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.34 days [2] 5. Industry News - As of February 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 30.77%, a month - on - month increase of 18.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 26.04%, a month - on - month increase of 13.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 42.11 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The reasons for the year - on - year and month - on - month decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 are mainly the seasonal fluctuations in February. As of February 25, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 53,500 tons, a significant increase of 19,600 tons compared with before the Spring Festival, a month - on - month increase of 57.68% [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20260302
Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-02 08:56