铂钯金期货日报-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, the concentrated release of market safe - haven buying demand may continue to push up the precious metals market. However, due to the market's prior pricing of potential conflicts, there may be a correction pressure after the action is implemented. The impact of the US - Iran war on the supply side of platinum and palladium may be limited. Operationally, it is recommended to focus on range - bound trading [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price is 626.50 yuan/gram, up 4.60 yuan; palladium's main contract closing price is 463.65 yuan/gram. Platinum's main contract position is 10387.00 hands, up 90.00 hands; palladium's main contract position is 3179.00 hands, and the position of platinum's main contract decreased by 277.00 hands [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (Pt9995) is 606.35 yuan/gram, down 3.64 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 431.00 yuan/gram, up 6.00 yuan. The basis of platinum's main contract is - 20.15 yuan/gram, down 16.29 yuan; the basis of palladium's main contract is - 32.65 yuan/gram, up 1.40 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.64, down 0.15; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.72%, down 0.02%. The VIX volatility index is 19.86, up 1.23 [2] Industry News - On February 28 local time, the US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran. US President Trump said the attack aimed to destroy Iran's missile industry and navy, and prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared the goal was to overthrow the Iranian regime. Fed Governor Milan advocates early and significant interest - rate cuts, reiterating a need to cut rates by 100 basis points in 2026. The US January PPI rose 2.9% year - on - year, with an expected 2.6% and a previous value of 3%; it rose 0.5% month - on - month, with an expected 0.3%. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 6.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 93.6%. By April, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 22.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 76.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.2%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 43.9% [2] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Power shortages and insufficient capital expenditure in South Africa restrict production growth, Russia faces sanctions risks, and North American mine production cuts further tighten supply. Demand side: Automobile catalysts are still the largest application area. The process of platinum replacing palladium may slow down recently due to the platinum price exceeding the palladium price. China's platinum jewelry demand has reached a seven - year high due to the substitution effect of high gold prices. The hydrogen energy field, although with a small base, is growing rapidly, providing long - term support for platinum. Investment demand: Platinum ETFs had net inflows in 2025, but some profit - taking occurred due to the February correction, while physical investment demand remained strong. Palladium investment demand is continuously weak, with limited marginal impact on prices [2] Key Focus - 23:00 on March 2, US ISM Manufacturing PMI; 00:30 on March 3, Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth forecast; 18:00 on March 3, Eurozone CPI year - on - year growth rate; 21:15 on March 4, US ADP private employment report; 20:30 on March 5, US January trade balance data [2]