农业产品研究团队

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: With rising temperatures and the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the willingness of grass - roots farmers in the production areas to sell grain increases, and market supply may rise. However, only about 30% of the grass - roots grain sources remain after the festival, reducing selling pressure. There is still a sentiment of reluctant selling and price support at the grass - roots level, and port inventories are still at a low level. For substitutes, the wheat price is relatively stable and has no feed substitution advantage over corn. Policy - grain auctions supplement market supply, and the substitution advantage of imported grains such as barley has increased. Future imports may continue to increase in a restorative manner [8][48]. - Demand side: The continuous growth of pig inventory drives the improvement of feed demand. After consumption, the inventory level of feed enterprises is still low. Deep - processing enterprises are deeply in loss in processing profit, with average operating rates and low inventories compared to the same period last year. There is a demand for restocking after the festival [8][48]. - Overall: In the spot market, in March, the purchase and sale of grass - roots corn will gradually resume, and market supply will increase, with possible temporary selling pressure, but the selling pressure will be alleviated. Downstream enterprises and the trading sector still have the demand to increase inventory, and the overall supply - demand pattern may still be tight. It is expected that the spot price of corn in March will mainly fluctuate and strengthen. In the futures market, with only about 30% of the grass - roots grain sources remaining after the festival, supply pressure is reduced, and market sentiment is strong. Contracts 2605/07 may still mainly fluctuate and strengthen. Follow - up attention should be paid to the later grain - selling progress and national policies such as grain投放 [8][48]. - Strategies: (1) Spot enterprises should appropriately restock at low prices; (2) Futures investors should continue to hold long - term long positions [8][48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot market: In February, corn prices rose. In the Northeast, prices were weak first and then strong. In North China, prices remained strong. In the sales areas, prices rose steadily. As of February 28, prices in various regions increased compared to the previous month. For example, the price in Harbin increased by 20 yuan/ton, and that in Changchun increased by 50 yuan/ton [10]. - Futures market: As of February 27, the main contract 2605 of Dalian corn futures closed at 2360 yuan/ton, a 3.6% increase from the end of last month [11]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Corn Supply - Grain - selling progress: Affected by the Spring Festival, the grain - selling progress was slow, and the average progress was significantly slower than the same period last year. As of now, the farmers' corn - selling progress is 65%, slower than the same period in different regions. It is expected that the progress will speed up after the Lantern Festival [14]. - Port inventory: In February, the inventory in northern ports decreased slightly, while that in southern ports increased. As of February 27, the total inventory of the four major northern corn - trading ports was 190.03 tons, a 5.35% decrease from the end of last month. The inventory in Guangdong ports (eastern Guangdong) was 85.90 tons, a 110.54% increase from the end of last month [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Substitutes - Wheat: As of February 28, the national average corn price was 2364 yuan/ton, and the average wheat price was 2528 yuan/ton. The wheat market was strong before the Spring Festival and stable after the festival. The market has shifted from pre - festival stocking - driven to post - festival off - season operation, and the market has gradually entered a rational adjustment stage [17]. 3.2.3 Imported Substitute Grains - Import data: In December, the import of grains was 10.86 million tons, a 6.0% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the cumulative import of grains was 140.56 million tons, a 10.8% year - on - year decrease. Different grains had different import trends. The import advantage of other grains has increased, and future imports may continue to increase [21][27]. 3.2.4 Feed Demand - Feed production: In 2025, the total output of the national industrial feed was 342.253 million tons, an 8.6% increase from the previous year. Different types of feed had different growth rates. - Pig production capacity: According to different data sources, the inventory of sows of reproductive age showed different trends. Overall, the pig slaughter in the first half of the year may increase slightly and year - on - year, so the feed output is expected to continue to increase slightly and year - on - year [30][34]. - Feed enterprise inventory: As of February 28, the average inventory time of national sample feed enterprises was 31.29 days, a 2.00% month - on - month and 2.43% year - on - year decrease. The inventory days decreased slightly this month [35]. 3.2.5 Deep - processing Demand - Starch production and profit: In February, the price of raw - material corn continued to be strong, and the profitability of deep - processing enterprises did not improve significantly. The output and operating rate of corn starch decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The processing profit of starch enterprises was in loss, and the loss in some regions deepened [40]. - Deep - processing enterprise inventory: As of February 25, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 3.852 million tons, a 12.55% month - on - month and 25.48% year - on - year decrease. It is expected that the inventory level will continue to rise in March [41]. 3.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the February 2026 agricultural product supply - demand report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the prediction of China's corn supply - demand situation this month is the same as last month. In the 2025/26 season, the corn planting area, yield per unit area, and total output are expected to increase. The import volume remains at 6 million tons. The feed consumption demand of corn will decline slightly at a high level, and the deep - processing consumption will stop falling and rise. The current corn sales progress is generally faster year - on - year [46]. 3.3 Later Outlook - The viewpoints and strategies are the same as the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding investment strategies [48].