软商品日报-20260302

Report Overview 1. Report Date - The report is dated March 2, 2026 [1] 2. Reported Industries - The report covers the soft commodities industry, including sugar, cotton, apples, and jujubes [3][17][23][32] Sugar Market 1. Core View - Domestic sugar supply surplus suppresses sugar prices, and the external raw sugar is under pressure at the 14 - cent support level. The market has fully reflected the weak fundamentals and is in a bottom - range oscillation, lacking short - term upward drivers [3] 2. Price and Spread Data - Futures Prices: SR01 closed at 5480 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 2.60%. SB closed at 13.92 cents/pound with a daily decrease of 0.29% and a weekly decrease of 0.64% [4] - Price Spreads: SR01 - 05 spread was 140 yuan/ton, unchanged on the day and up 10 yuan/ton for the week. SR05 - 09 spread was - 11 yuan/ton, unchanged both daily and weekly [4] - Basis: On February 27, 2026, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was - 114 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton daily and 77 yuan/ton weekly [12] - Import Prices: On March 2, 2026, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 3964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton daily and up 107 yuan/ton weekly. The out - of - quota price was 5018 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton daily and up 140 yuan/ton weekly [15] Cotton Market 1. Core View - The expectation of tight domestic supply and demand this year remains unchanged. The current price difference between domestic and foreign cotton exerts pressure on the upper limit of cotton prices. The recent escalation of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has limited impact on the cotton market fundamentals, but the sharp rise in crude oil may support US cotton due to the increase in substitute prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent adjustment of US foreign trade policies and the export progress of US cotton [17] 2. Price and Spread Data - Futures Prices: Cotton 01 closed at 15630 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton or 0.6%. Cotton 05 closed at 15225 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 1.1% [18] - Price Spreads: The cotton 01 - 05 spread was 330 yuan/ton, unchanged on the day. The cotton basis was 1236 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton [18] Apple Market 1. Core View - After the holiday, the demand for apples weakens, the transaction in the producing areas is divided, and the inventory depletion speed slows down. If the demand continues to weaken, the futures price may continue to decline. If the trading logic returns to the shortage of delivery products, the futures price may rise again [23] 2. Price and Spread Data - Futures Prices: AP01 closed at 8470 yuan/ton, up 1.85% daily and 2.04% weekly. AP05 closed at 9896 yuan/ton, up 1.39% daily and 0.62% weekly [24] - Price Spreads: AP01 - 05 spread was - 1444 yuan/ton, unchanged on the day and down 5.87% weekly [24] Jujube Market 1. Core View - The jujube production in the 2025/2026 season has been determined, and the market focus has shifted to the change in demand. The overall supply - demand pattern of domestic jujubes is loose, and the short - term jujube price will still face pressure and may maintain a low - level oscillation [32] 2. Price Spread Data - Futures Price Spreads: The jujube futures 01 - 05 spread showed a certain range of fluctuations in historical data, and similar situations exist for the 05 - 09 and 09 - 01 spreads [33][35]