纸浆月报：供需压力改善不足，区间震荡-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Supply - demand pressure improvement is insufficient, range - bound trading" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentals: In the macro - aspect, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's global tariffs were illegal, and Trump introduced a new 15% tariff using Article 122. The US announced that Trump will visit China from March 31st to April 2nd. In the domestic market, in January, the year - on - year increase in CPI fell to 0.2%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 1.4%. The new social financing in January was 7.2 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year. The RMB exchange rate continued to rise. In February, pulp showed an inverted N - shaped trend, mainly fluctuating with the industrial product sector. On the supply side, the FOB quotes of imported wood pulp were stable and strong, while the continuous strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar weakened the support of import costs. In the European market, the consumption of chemical pulp in January decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, and the inventory of chemical pulp in January decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. In December, the shipment volume of chemical pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, among which softwood pulp decreased by 2.3% and hardwood pulp decreased by 0.9%. As of late February, the inventory in major regions and ports increased by 11.09% month - on - month. On the demand side, in February, raw paper enterprises completed their raw material stockpiling, market demand weakened, and the number of accepted orders was insufficient. In the cultural paper market, some production lines were shut down, and the overall shipment became lighter during the month. In the tissue paper market, supply and demand were operating at a low level with limited transactions. In the packaging paper market, some implemented price - protection policies and had weak motivation for price adjustment [7]. - View: On the cost side, in February, the quote of Chile's Arauco remained at $710 per ton, and the appreciation of the RMB offset some pressure. It remains to be seen about the subsequent quotes in the pulp week in March. On the supply side, after the Spring Festival, pulp enterprises gradually resumed production, and the import volume may increase, so the total supply is expected to increase. As of the end of February, the overall inventory of pulp in major regions and ports was still at a high level compared to the same period, but the inventory accumulation rate was lower than last year. On the demand side, in March, the operation of downstream paper mills will gradually return to normal, but the second quarter will enter the off - season of papermaking demand, so the total demand will first increase and then decrease. Overall, currently, the supply - demand pressure of pulp has not improved sufficiently, and it is mainly in a wide - range low - level shock adjustment. It awaits a further decrease in overseas market shipment volume or a continuous improvement in the profitability of the papermaking industry [7]. - Strategy: Buy low and sell high, conduct range - bound operations [7]. - Important Variables: Macroeconomic policies, supply disruptions, and demand performance [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In February, pulp prices fluctuated in a low - level range, with a monthly decline of 0.5%. In the macro - aspect, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's global tariffs were illegal, and Trump introduced a new 15% tariff using Article 122. The US announced that Trump will visit China from March 31st to April 2nd. In the domestic market, in January, the year - on - year increase in CPI fell to 0.2%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 1.4%. The new social financing in January was 7.2 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year. The RMB exchange rate continued to rise. In February 2026, pulp first weakened, then strengthened, and then adjusted, mainly fluctuating with the industrial product sector. The FOB quotes of imported wood pulp were stable and strong, while the continuous strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar weakened the support of import costs. In the European market, the consumption of chemical pulp in January decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, and the inventory of chemical pulp in January decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. In December, the shipment volume of chemical pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, among which softwood pulp decreased by 2.3% and hardwood pulp decreased by 0.9%. As of late February, the inventory in major regions and ports increased by 11.09% month - on - month. In February, raw paper enterprises completed their raw material stockpiling, market demand weakened, and the number of accepted orders was insufficient. The average monthly price of imported softwood pulp in January decreased by 3.22% compared to the previous month, and the average monthly price of imported hardwood pulp decreased by 1.81% compared to the previous month. In February, the FOB quotes of wood pulp from Chile's Arauco were: softwood pulp Silver Star at $710 per ton; unbleached pulp Venus at $620 per ton; hardwood pulp Star at $600 per ton [9]. 3.2 Global Commodity Pulp Shipment Volume Continues to Decline Year - on - Year - The global commodity pulp shipment volume continues to decline year - on - year. According to PPPC, in December, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries was 1.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.80% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.27%; the shipment volume of hardwood pulp was 3.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.91%. In December, the ratio of the global commodity chemical pulp shipment volume to production capacity seasonally rebounded to a neutral level in recent years, an increase of 8.16% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 1.81% compared to the same period last year. In December, the inventory days of softwood pulp for global producers were 47 days, an increase of 1 day compared to the previous month and an increase of 5 days compared to the same period last year; for hardwood pulp, it was 37 days, a decrease of 5 days compared to the previous month and a decrease of 2 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - China's pulp import volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year in December. In December, China imported 3.11 million tons of pulp, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to December, the cumulative pulp import was 36.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. By variety, in December, 780,000 tons of softwood pulp were imported, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%; 1.35 million tons of hardwood pulp were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4% [17]. - In February, the inventory in major ports increased significantly month - on - month. As of late February, the inventory in major domestic ports and regions was about 2.3551 million tons, an increase of 11.09% compared to the previous month. Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port increased by 11.17% compared to the previous month, and that in Changshu Port increased by 6.86% compared to the previous month [18]. 3.3 Downstream Market Demand is in the Post - Festival Recovery Stage - China's machine - made paper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In December 2025, the production of machine - made paper and paperboard in China was 14.928 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. From January to December, the cumulative production was 164.0535 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [37]. - The finished product inventory of China's papermaking and paper products industry accumulated again. In December, the inventory of the papermaking and paper products industry increased by 4.6% year - on - year and 2.6% month - on - month; the finished product inventory increased by 8.2% year - on - year and 1.7% month - on - month [37]. - In February, raw paper enterprises completed their raw material stockpiling, and market demand weakened [37]. - White Cardboard: As of February 27th, the monthly average price of the white cardboard market was 4,269 yuan per ton, a 0.02% increase compared to the previous month. In February, paper mills mostly adopted a stable - market attitude under cost pressure, and some implemented price - protection policies. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the overall market transactions were limited, and the motivation for price adjustment was weak [37]. - Tissue Paper: As of February 27th, the monthly average price of the tissue paper market was 5,850 yuan per ton, a 0.07% increase compared to the previous month. In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the supply and demand of the tissue paper market were operating at a low level with limited transactions, and the paper price basically remained stable [37]. - Double - Offset Paper: As of February 27th, the monthly average price of the natural - white double - offset paper market was 4,459 yuan per ton, the same as the previous month. In February, the offers of paper enterprises were basically stable, and the overall shipment became lighter during the month. Some production lines were shut down, and the market supply decreased month - on - month. In the middle and late ten - days, the Spring Festival holiday began one after another, and the purchase of raw paper almost stopped. The post - festival demand recovery was relatively slow [38]. - Double - Coated Paper: As of February 27th, the monthly average price of the double - coated paper market was 4,660 yuan per ton, a 0.38% decrease compared to the previous month. In February, the offers of paper mills were basically stable, and the supply of goods was abundant. Before the Spring Festival, the market gradually went on holiday, and logistics stopped operating. The downstream purchasing demand decreased. After the Spring Festival, the market recovery rhythm was inconsistent, and the improvement of trading activity was limited [38]. 3.4 The Gross Margin Trend of Wood - Pulp - Based Paper Products is Slightly Better and Stable - The overall gross margin trend of wood - pulp - based paper products is slightly better and stable. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the operating income of the papermaking and paper products industry was 2.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the total profit was 13.6%, and the overall decline expanded again. In February, the monthly average value of the main raw material cost was weaker than the previous month, and the price adjustment of terminal paper products was limited. The overall gross margin trend fluctuated slightly and recovered slowly. By variety, in January, the gross margin of white cardboard increased by 0.11 percentage points compared to the previous month; the gross margin of tissue paper decreased by 0.06 percentage points compared to the previous month; the gross margin of double - offset paper increased by 0.06 percentage points compared to the previous month; the gross margin of double - coated paper increased by 0.07 percentage points compared to the previous month [49].