鸡蛋月报：补栏回暖，鸡蛋仍将磨底-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: The current inventory of laying hens has declined from last year's high but has recently shown fluctuations. As of the end of February, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was approximately 1.35 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, ending four consecutive months of decline and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In general, before the second quarter of this year, the inventory is expected to decline slowly [6][20][36]. - Demand side: In February, egg sales showed a seasonal decline and were weaker year - on - year. The overall market demand is currently weak. Vegetable and pig prices are at low levels, which have a substitution effect on egg demand. After the Spring Festival, the focus is on inventory digestion, and overall demand is not optimistic [6][31][36]. - Outlook: Spot prices are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly at low levels. If inventory is digested quickly, a small rebound may occur in mid - March. For futures, the near - month contracts' performance depends on the spot price rebound. The 06 contract during the rainy season is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The far - month peak - season contracts are suitable for range trading and low - buying in general [6][9][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - Spot: In January, spot prices were strong. In February, they entered a seasonal decline after the Spring Festival stocking ended. As of February 27, the average price in production areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, and in main sales areas was 3.14 yuan/jin. Spot prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly at low levels and may rebound in mid - March if inventory is digested quickly [8]. - Futures: The main contract switched to 04. Near - month contracts showed a trend of first weakening and then strengthening. The far - month contracts had a weaker rebound. Near - month contracts' performance is closely related to the spot price rebound. The 06 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and far - month peak - season contracts are for range trading and low - buying [9]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1淘汰鸡 - Price: The daily average price of Hailan Brown culling chickens in February was 4.76 yuan/jin. The price rebounded in January - February due to reduced culling willingness and Spring Festival stocking demand. After the festival, the price rebound may be limited [10][15]. - Quantity: As of February 26, the culling volume in February showed a seasonal decline, and the culling age averaged 501 days, indicating a tendency for farmers to delay culling. In March, culling willingness may remain stable if egg prices do not decline further [15][19]. 3.2.2存栏补栏 - Inventory: As of the end of February, the inventory of laying hens was approximately 1.35 billion, ending a four - month decline. Before the second quarter of this year, the inventory is expected to decline slowly [20]. - Replenishment: In February, the monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 43.3 million. The replenishment volume in January - February was significantly higher than that in the second half of last year. The inventory of laying hens in March is likely to continue to decline steadily [21]. - Laying rate: In late February, the laying rate was about 92.71%, following the seasonal pattern [23]. 3.2.3养殖利润 - In February, the breeding profit was in a seasonal decline. As of February 26, the average weekly profit per jin of fresh eggs was about - 0.35 yuan/jin, at a relatively low level in the past seven years. The negative profit era of egg chicken breeding is expected to continue for some time [29]. 3.3 Demand Side - Sales volume: As of February 26, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas in the previous four weeks was about 4707 tons. Sales in February showed a seasonal decline and were weaker year - on - year, indicating weak overall market demand [31]. - Inventory: As of February 26, the inventory in the fresh egg circulation link was about 1.26 days, and in the production link was about 1.36 days. After the Spring Festival, inventory needs to be digested, and it is expected to return to normal levels in early March [31]. - Substitute prices: Pig prices have fallen to a very low historical level, having an obvious drag effect. Vegetable prices are at a medium - low level compared with the same period in previous years and are unlikely to have a positive impact on egg prices [31][35]. 3.4后期展望及策略 - Supply and demand: The supply side inventory may decline slowly before the second quarter, and the demand side is not optimistic in the short term [36]. - Strategy: - For farmers and spot traders: Spot prices will stabilize in March, with a small rebound opportunity later [38]. - For futures speculators: Near - month contracts follow spot price movements. The 06 contract should be shorted on rallies, and far - month peak - season contracts are for range trading and low - buying [38]. - Important variables: Replenishment enthusiasm, egg price rebound strength in March, and feed costs [39].