原油月报：美伊局势升级，关注通航进展-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the geopolitical situation will keep oil prices high. SC is more strongly supported than foreign markets, and price fluctuations will increase. There is still significant uncertainty in the US - Iran situation, and attention should be paid to the later navigation time of the Strait of Hormuz. In the medium - term, there is still a downward risk for oil prices [6][48] - Considering the temporary interruption of supply in the Strait of Hormuz, the surplus in the balance sheet can be reduced. In extreme cases, if the supply interruption in the strait lasts for more than 3 weeks, the market in the first quarter will turn into a supply - demand deficit, and if the interruption continues, the market will experience continuous inventory reduction. However, the possibility of long - term suspension of navigation is low [6][36][48] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In February, international oil prices fluctuated upwards. At the beginning of the month, the market worried about the easing of the geopolitical situation, and oil prices dropped significantly. But then, due to the lack of progress in US - Iran negotiations and Trump's threat of military strikes, oil prices rose. As of February 26, the closing price of the SC main contract was 484.7 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.57%; the closing price of the Brent main contract was $70.98/barrel, with a maximum of $72.04 and a minimum of $64.9, a rise of 2.85%; the closing price of the WTI futures main contract was $65.67/barrel, with a maximum of $67.28 and a minimum of $61.04, a rise of 0.83% [12] 3.2 Disrupted Transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, Supply Supported - Supply side: After the US - Israel military action against Iran, OPEC decided to increase production from April, and Saudi Arabia has increased oil exports. The remaining production capacity of 12 OPEC member countries is 4.2 million barrels per day, which can cover Iran's supply in terms of production, and there is no report of damage to Iran's energy facilities. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has a greater impact. Although Saudi Arabia and the UAE can transport part of the oil through pipelines, there is still a gap of more than 13 million barrels per day. Venezuela's supply has growth potential as the US has relaxed sanctions [13][16][18] - US crude oil production has increased slowly. EIA data shows that as of the week of February 20, US crude oil production was 13.702 million barrels per day, a monthly decrease of 0.6 million barrels per day. EIA expects US crude oil production to remain basically flat in 2026 and decrease by 0.34 million barrels per day in 2027 [23] 3.3 Limited Demand Changes - The latest forecasts of major institutions for demand have changed little. EIA expects global consumption to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day year - on - year in 2026 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2027. The incremental consumption mainly comes from non - OECD countries, especially Asian countries. IEA expects global consumption to increase by 0.85 million barrels per day in 2026, with all the incremental consumption coming from non - OECD countries, and more than half of the future incremental consumption will come from chemical oil [28][47] - High - frequency data shows that as of the week of February 20, US crude oil inventories increased significantly by 15.989 million barrels, and gasoline inventories reached the highest level in the same period in five years, while distillate oil demand dropped significantly. The total inventory of crude oil and refined oil increased, which is bearish for the market [34] 3.4 Outlook and Operational Suggestions - Supply side: OPEC has released the intention to increase production. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the main factor affecting supply, and there is a large supply gap. Venezuela's supply has growth potential as sanctions are relaxed [45][47] - Demand side: The demand forecast of major institutions has changed little, with incremental consumption mainly from non - OECD countries, especially Asian countries [47] - Overall, considering the supply interruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the surplus in the balance sheet can be reduced. In the short - term, oil prices will remain high, and in the medium - term, there is a downward risk [48]