建信期货棉花日报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the deepening of drought in the US cotton - growing areas, the expected decline in Brazil's cotton production, and the contraction of China's cotton - planting intention, the supply of global cotton in the 2026/27 season is expected to tighten. The US cotton signing and sales are currently in the peak period, with a high possibility of achieving the export target. The net position of CFTC funds has rebounded from the bottom. Combined with the expectation of Trump's visit to China, there is an upward space for US cotton. After the Spring Festival, Zhengzhou cotton has broken through the previous high but is still restricted by the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. In the short term, it may enter a volatile adjustment trend again, but in the medium and long term, the price is expected to be positive supported by the contraction of planting area, good monthly apparent consumption, and the year - on - year decline in commercial inventory levels. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in cotton - planting intention and the policy guidance of the Xinjiang cotton target price from 2026 - 2028. The strategy is to buy on dips and purchase call options. The important variables are macro - policies, industrial policies, and cotton - planting intention [7][48]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In February, the main contract of US cotton rebounded from a low level, rising 1.7% monthly. The external market trend in February was mainly boosted by the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum report, which estimated that global cotton production would decline and consumption would increase in the 2026/27 season, with the global ending inventory decreasing by 5.2% year - on - year, and the US cotton inventory decreasing by 4.5% year - on - year but remaining above 4 million bales. Recently, the signing progress of US cotton sales has been good, and the current grain - to - cotton ratio is slightly lower than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the intention area report. In the same month, Zhengzhou cotton broke through the pre - festival trading range, with a monthly increase of 4.6%. The strengthening of the external market during the festival narrowed the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, and the resistance level of Zhengzhou cotton continued to move up. At the same time, the tariff level may decline after the Trump administration replaces IEEPA with Article 122, and the demand is expected to be good as it is about to enter the traditional consumption peak season after the festival [9][11]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand Situation - The US Agricultural Outlook Forum report predicts that in the 2026/27 season, global cotton production will decrease by 3.2% year - on - year to 116 million bales, consumption will reach 120 million bales, an increase of 1.2% year - on - year, and the global ending inventory of cotton is expected to be 71.2 million bales, a decrease of 5.2% year - on - year. Among them, US cotton production in the 2026/27 season is expected to decline by 2.3% year - on - year to 13.6 million bales, exports will increase by 1.7% year - on - year to 12.2 million bales, and the US cotton ending inventory is expected to decline by 4.5% year - on - year to 4.2 million bales, remaining at a moderately high inventory level after the decline. Due to the decline in both planting area and yield per unit, China's cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to decline by 8.6 to 32 million bales year - on - year, consumption is expected to increase by 0.8% year - on - year to 39.3 million bales, and China's cotton ending inventory is expected to decline by 1.0% year - on - year to 36 million bales [13]. 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 National Cotton Farmers' Cotton - Planting Intention - In January 2026, the Cotton Farmers' Branch of the China Cotton Association conducted a second survey on the cotton - planting intention of 1,805 fixed - point farmers in 10 provinces and municipalities and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The results showed that the national cotton - planting intention area in 2026 was 44.583 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous period; among them, the area in Xinjiang was 40.831 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous period. The cotton - planting income in Xinjiang is relatively stable. The No. 1 Central Document in 2026 clearly states that the cotton target price policy will continue to be improved. Since January, cotton prices have mainly risen, and more than 90% of farmers still choose to grow cotton. However, due to the unclear implementation details of the new round of price levels and cotton - planting area adjustments, the enthusiasm of a small number of cotton farmers has declined compared with the previous year, and the intention area has slightly decreased. In the mainland, due to the low purchase price, the decrease in the area of inter - cropping crops with cotton, and the high cost of cotton - planting, the proportion of farmers choosing to reduce the area has increased, but those who remain unchanged and those who are hesitant still account for the majority. Among the surveyed cotton farmers in the country, the proportion of those with unchanged intention is the highest, at 69.6%, those who are hesitant account for 21.8%, and those who plan to reduce and increase the area account for 5.8% and 2.8% respectively [15]. 3.3.2 Cotton Purchase and Processing Situation - As of March 1, 2026, a total of 1,099 cotton processing enterprises in the 2025 cotton season processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The national cumulative inspection was 33,138,040 bales, a total of 7.4803 million tons, which was the same as the previous day and a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 32,687,807 bales, a total of 7.3795 million tons, the same as the previous day; the inspection volume in the mainland was 279,698 bales, a total of 62,200 tons [17]. 3.3.3 Inventory Situation - Statistical data shows that the commercial inventory of cotton in mid - February was 5.5037 million tons, a decrease of 285,000 tons compared with the end of last month; the industrial inventory of cotton in mid - February was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 28,200 tons compared with the end of last month. From the perspective of the graph trend, the current commercial inventory of cotton has reached the annual peak and is turning to a consumption trend. The cotton consumption this year is better than the same period last year, and the current ending inventory has changed from slightly higher year - on - year to slightly lower year - on - year. The industrial inventory level of cotton is rising steadily, with downstream enterprises replenishing stocks before the festival, and the expansion of production capacity supports the demand for raw materials. In February, the yarn inventory index was 22.95 days, a decrease of 2.87 days compared with the previous month; the grey fabric inventory index in February was 32.58 days, the same as the previous month [18]. 3.3.4 Cotton Import Volume - In December 2025, the import volume was 177,300 tons, an increase of 41,500 tons year - on - year (135,900 tons) and an increase of 58,600 tons month - on - month (118,700 tons); from January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.0659 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.2%, a decrease of 1.5443 million tons year - on - year (2.6102 million tons); in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative import volume was 480,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, an increase of 12,900 tons year - on - year (467,200 tons) [20]. 3.3.5 Textile Enterprises' Processing Situation - According to the statistics of the Cotton Textile Information Network, as of February 27, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 34.8 days, a decrease of 0.2 days compared with last week; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.9 days, an increase of 0.4 days compared with last week; the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 10.2 days, an increase of 0.4 days compared with last week; the cotton grey fabric inventory was 36.5 days, the same as last week. As of February 27, the yarn load index in China was 43.3%, an increase of 27.1% compared with last week; the grey fabric load index in China was 41.6%, an increase of 27.7% compared with last week. In February, pure cotton yarn enterprises resumed work after the Spring Festival, mainly maintaining stockpiling and previous orders. The trading center shifted up by 200 - 500, and the trading of high - count yarn was good, with the actual cash flow performing well. The pure cotton grey fabric market mainly focused on resuming work, and it is expected that the market trading will increase after the Lantern Festival, and the quotation has been slightly increased [22]. 3.3.6 Textile Demand Situation - In December 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles were 1.5215 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. Among them, the retail sales of clothing from January to December were 1.1045 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In December 2025, the export value of textile and clothing was 26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export value of textile and clothing was 293.8 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. From the perspective of the textile and clothing import data of the United States, the European Union, and Japan, in December 2025, the cumulative import volume of textile and clothing in the European Union was 1.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.0%; in December 2025, the import volume of textile and clothing in the United States was 6.9 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.7%; in December 2025, the import volume of textile and clothing in Japan was 210,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Overall, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic consumption in December narrowed, but domestic consumption still had support; the external demand consumption in the fourth quarter was differentiated. The monthly import of the European market increased year - on - year, performing better than last year, the US market had a continuous year - on - year decline for four months with an enlarged decline, and the demand in the Japanese market was not significantly affected [35]. 3.4 Summary and Future Outlook - The content is the same as the core viewpoints of the report, including the macro situation, supply and demand situation, views, strategies, and important variables [7][48].