建信期货苹果日报-20260302

Group 1: Report Information - Report industry: Apple [1] - Report date: March 2, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The apple market shows a polarization in the sales of high - quality and low - quality goods. High - quality goods are in short supply and may still see price increases, while low - quality goods face pressure to reduce prices for sales volume. Attention should be paid to the circulation of medium - and low - grade goods in the market. The near - month contracts mainly focus on the warehouse receipt cost logic. Due to the firm price of high - quality fruits, the AP2605 contract will mainly fluctuate at a high level, and the willingness of buyers to take delivery directly affects the final trend of the market. The new - season contracts are speculated on weather in advance and should be treated with a bullish mindset [8][23] Group 3: Market Review - In February, the main contract of apple futures, AP605, showed a high - level oscillating trend, fluctuating in the range of 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. As of the close on February 27, AP605 closed at 9,760 yuan/ton, down 0.76% slightly, with a position of about 129,000 lots. The near - month contract AP603 fluctuated sharply on the last trading day before the delivery month, with the futures price dropping from a high of 9,470 yuan/ton to a minimum of 8,540 yuan/ton. The futures long - position holders seemed to give up taking delivery, with an intraday reduction of 177 lots, and only 34 lots entered the delivery month. The far - month contracts remained strong [10] Group 4: Factor Analysis 4.1 Inventory Apple Sales Polarization - In February, during the Spring Festival consumption peak, the mainstream transaction prices of cold - storage apples were stable with a slight increase. There were large differences among different production areas. High - quality western production areas had smooth sales and strong prices, while some secondary production areas in Shandong had uneven product quality, with relatively light trading and slightly weak prices. The mainstream transaction prices in Gansu increased slightly due to the shortage of high - quality goods. The sales volume in Shaanxi was large during the Spring Festival, and the prices were stable. The overall trading volume in Shandong was average [12] - The apple market continues to be polarized. Merchants prefer high - quality goods over general farmer - produced goods, and the overall trading atmosphere is still average. Merchants in Gansu have a certain enthusiasm for restocking, while the transactions in Shandong and Shaanxi are relatively average. Low - quality goods face pressure to reduce prices for sales volume [13] 4.2 Slow Apple Out - of - Warehouse Rhythm in Main Production Areas - This year's apple storage volume is lower than last year, about 700 - 800 million tons, second only to 2018. The commodity rate and quality have declined significantly, with farmers accounting for about 60%. High - quality goods are mainly in the hands of merchants. After the Spring Festival, the overall out - of - warehouse progress is good compared with previous years but slower than last year. High - quality goods are in short supply, and the polarization between high - and low - quality goods is likely to continue. The sales situation of inventory from March to April directly affects the willingness of buyers to take delivery in subsequent contracts [16] 4.3 Increased Impact of Delivery Rules on Prices - Near - month contracts are mainly based on delivery logic. There is always a game between the value of buyers taking delivery and the cost of sellers' warehouse receipts. The trend of near - month contracts depends more on delivery factors. In 2025, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange revised the "Detailed Rules for Fresh Apple Futures Business", which has had a continuous impact on the futures - spot price system. In the year of "general production reduction + serious decline in high - quality fruit rate" like 2025/26, high - quality goods meeting the futures delivery standards are scarcer, and the cost of apple futures warehouse receipts has increased significantly, directly supporting the contract valuation [19] 4.4 Supply - Side Weather Speculation - Entering the end of March, it is the flowering period of new - season apples, and the market focuses on supply - side weather speculation again. According to the forecast of the National Climate Center, it is expected that in spring (March - May) this year, except for the western part of Guangxi, the southeastern part of Yunnan, and the southwestern part of Guizhou, where the temperature is 0.5 - 1°C lower than the same period of the previous year, the temperature in most other parts of the country is close to or higher than the same period of the previous year. In the past 10 days (from February 20 to March 1), the average temperature in most parts of the country was 2 - 4°C higher than the same period of the previous year, and in some areas such as the northwest, the western part of North China, the southern part of Northeast China, the Sichuan Basin, and Guizhou, it was 5 - 7°C higher. The high temperature in the main production areas in spring 2026 may cause the phenological period of apples to be slightly advanced. An earlier flowering period means a corresponding change in the risk window of late frosts, and it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and early warning of frost damage during the flowering period. "Cold snaps in a warm winter" are the most important meteorological risks to be guarded against in 2026 [22]