建信期货豆粕月报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: South America is expected to have stable and high - yield soybeans, with Brazil's overall high - yield outlook unchanged despite some harvest issues, and Argentina's yield may slightly decrease. The US may increase its soybean planting area in 2026. Overall, the supply pressure is relatively large [7][63][65]. - Demand side: After the high - volume trading of soybean meal in January, the spot market was relatively quiet in February. Future demand depends on the auction of imported soybeans. Terminal demand is relatively stable in the short - to - medium term [7][64][65]. - Outlook: The 05 basis in March may first be stable and then strengthen. The external CBOT soybean may fluctuate at a high level in March. Domestic soybean meal may rise slightly in the short - to - medium term but will face pressure after mid - April when Brazilian soybeans arrive in large quantities [7][64][65]. - Strategy: Spot merchants can expect the basis to be stable first and then strengthen in March. Futures speculators can hold a slightly bullish view in the short - to - medium term and pay attention to key variables [7][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Upstream: Planting and Export 3.1.1 Soybean Supply - Yield and inventory: The USDA's January report finalized the 2025 US soybean production. The new - season US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026. The USDA estimates Brazil's soybean yield in the next season to be 1.8 billion tons and Argentina's to be 48.5 million tons [9]. - Growth progress and quality: Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, but the overall progress is slow. Argentina has completed sowing, and the crop rating and moisture conditions have changed [10]. - Weather: Brazil is in the harvest peak, and the overall yield is expected to be high. Argentina's rainfall during the holiday has relieved some growth pressure [11]. 3.1.2 Exports of Major Producing Countries - Brazil: The USDA expects Brazil to export 114 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/26 season, with good export prospects. In January, Brazil exported 2.017 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 75.1% [20][21]. - US: The USDA expects the US to export 42.86 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/26 season, a year - on - year decrease of about 16%. The current sales situation is poor, and future exports depend on China's additional purchases [22][26]. 3.2 Midstream: China's Soybean Import and Pressing 3.2.1 China's Soybean Import - Import volume: In December 2025, China imported 8.044 million tons of soybeans. The 2025/26 season (starting from October) cumulative import volume as of December was 25.633 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. It is expected to set a new record in 2026 [35][36]. - Buying and arrival: As of late February, the buying volume in February was 10.518 million tons, and the arrival volume will seasonally decrease, and the port soybean inventory will decline until mid - April [36]. 3.2.2 China's Soybean Pressing and Inventory - Pressing profit: In February, the external CBOT soybean was strong, while the domestic market was relatively weak, and the pressing profit was slightly weak [46]. - Pressing volume and operating rate: As of the week of February 20, the actual operating rate of 111 oil mills was 0.98%, and the actual pressing volume was 30,200 tons. It is expected to recover to a relatively low level after the Spring Festival [46]. - Soybean inventory: As of February 20, the national major oil mills' soybean commercial inventory was 4.9204 million tons, an increase of 7.7% from the previous week. The inventory will enter a destocking stage [47]. 3.3 Downstream: Feed and Livestock Farming 3.3.1 Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory - Inventory: As of February 20, the domestic major oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 772,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 73%. The spot market was quiet in February, and future demand depends on soybean auctions [53]. 3.3.2 Pig Farming - Profit: As of February 27, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 159.65 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was 20.83 yuan/head [57]. - Feed production: In 2025, the national industrial feed production increased by 8.6% year - on - year. Pig feed production increased significantly. The proportion of soybean meal in feed remained the same, and the use of miscellaneous meals increased [58]. 3.3.3 Poultry Farming - Broilers: At the end of February, the price of white - feather broilers was 7.53 yuan/kg, slightly weak. The market supply is sufficient, and the price may continue to decline [61]. - Laying hens: In February, the breeding profit was in a seasonal decline. The laying hen inventory increased slightly at the end of February but is expected to decline in the first half of the year [62]. 3.4 Later Outlook and Strategy - Supply side: South American soybeans are expected to be high - yield, and the US may increase its planting area. The overall supply pressure is large [7][63][65]. - Demand side: The spot market was quiet in February, and future demand depends on soybean auctions. Terminal demand is stable in the short - to - medium term [7][64][65]. - Outlook: The 05 basis in March may first be stable and then strengthen. The external CBOT soybean may fluctuate at a high level in March. Domestic soybean meal may rise slightly in the short - to - medium term but will face pressure after mid - April [7][64][65]. - Strategy: Spot merchants can expect the basis to be stable first and then strengthen in March. Futures speculators can hold a slightly bullish view in the short - to - medium term and pay attention to key variables [7][66]. - Key variables: The frequency and quantity of imported soybean auctions, Brazil's harvest and shipping situation, and Trump's visit to China [7][67].