生猪月报：供需偏宽松&二育支撑，低位震荡-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: By comprehensively considering the planned slaughter volume, large pigs, piglets, and sow inventory, the pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until April, decline slightly from May to August, and increase slightly from September to November. By November, the year-on-year growth will continue, but the growth rate will narrow. Also, pre - holiday pressure - barring and second - fattening pigs were actively slaughtered, reducing the post - holiday supply pressure, but there are still some fat pigs to be slaughtered. With high fat pig prices and a favorable fat - to - standard price difference, the slaughter weight may increase slightly [8][59]. - Demand side: In March, as the market gradually resumes work and school, the terminal market is in the post - holiday traditional off - season, mainly digesting holiday inventories. Traders make rigid - demand purchases, and the operating rate may increase slowly in March. Currently, the fat - to - standard price difference is significant. To meet the demand for the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays, second - fattening may enter the market when prices drop to a low level in March, supporting prices [8][59]. - Viewpoint: In terms of spot, in March, the production capacity will continue to be realized, and the slaughter of the breeding side may continue to increase. After the holiday, the breeding side resumes slaughter, and a small amount of February pig sources are postponed to March, so the supply pressure remains high. On the demand side, it is the post - holiday traditional off - season, mainly digesting holiday inventories, but second - fattening may have replenishment demand, which may support prices. Overall, the supply and demand of live pig spot in March remain relatively loose, but low prices may stimulate the increase in second - fattening demand, and prices may bottom out and rebound. In terms of futures, with sufficient production capacity, the live pig supply is expected to increase slightly. Meanwhile, it is the post - holiday consumption off - season, so the 05/07 contracts will mainly fluctuate weakly, but attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent second - fattening [8][59]. - Strategy: 1. Futures investors: Hold short positions and reduce positions on dips; 2. Breeding enterprises: Hold hedging short positions and reduce positions as they slaughter [8][60]. - Important variables: Swine fever epidemic, consistent expectations such as pressure - barring and second - fattening, environmental protection policies, etc. [8][61] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Spot: In February, the national live pig price first rose and then fell, and the monthly average price center moved down significantly. During the Spring Festival, the breeding side arranged most of the slaughter plan in the first ten - day period, and large - scale enterprises increased the slaughter of large - weight pigs. In the southern region, due to factors such as the slower - than - expected return of the population before the festival and the pre - consumption of terminal consumption, the pig price dropped significantly after reaching a high. In terms of demand, although it was the traditional consumption peak season in February, the overall consumption support was limited. The slaughter volume of the slaughter side decreased slightly due to the Spring Festival holiday. According to Yongyi data, the average national live pig slaughter price in February was 11.66 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1 yuan/kg from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 7.89% [10]. - Breeding cost and profit: By the end of February, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.10 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9 yuan/kg compared with 13 yuan/kg. The cost of fattening pigs with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 12.60 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 1.75 yuan/kg compared with 14.35 yuan/kg. By February 26, the average profit per self - bred and self - fattened pig was - 160 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 206 yuan/head; the profit of fattening with purchased piglets was - 146 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 111 yuan/head [11]. - Futures: In February, the main contract 2605 of live pig futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price on the 27th was 11485 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 165 yuan/ton and a decline of 1.42% [11]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Long - term Supply: Sow Inventory - In February, during the Spring Festival holiday and with the lack of significant positive factors in the industry, the replenishment willingness of reserve farmers was low, and the overall trading was dull. According to Yongyi Consulting data, the average market price of 50KG binary sows in February was 1559 yuan/head, a slight increase of 2 yuan/head from the previous month [14]. - Sow inventory: According to national statistics, by the end of 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million heads, a quarterly - on - quarter decrease of 740,000 heads (a decline of 1.83%) and a year - on - year decrease of 1.16 million heads (a decline of 2.9%), accounting for 101.6% of the normal reserve. From the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in October last year, the sow inventory decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and 2.1% year - on - year. From January to October last year, the inventory decreased by 0.4%, increased by 0.1%, decreased by 0.7%, remained flat, increased by 0.1%, remained flat from June to July, and decreased by 0.1%, 0.1%, and 1.1% from August to October. Year - on - year, from February to June last year, it increased by 0.6%, 1.2%, 1.3%, 1.2%, and 0.1%, remained flat from July to August, and decreased by 0.7% and 2.1% from September to October. Theoretically, from March to May this year, the pig slaughter will be basically flat, and from June to August, it will decrease by 0.1%, 0.1%, and 1.1%. Year - on - year, from March to April this year, it will increase by 1.3%, 1.2%, and 0.1%, be basically flat from May to June, and decrease by 0.7% and 2.1% from July to August. According to Yongyi Information data, as of January this year, the sow inventory of sample farms was 1.1505 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 2.24%. The sow inventory of sample farms increased by 0.1%, 0.96%, 0.92%, 0.12%, 0.52%, and 0.07% from March to August last year, decreased by 0.84% and 0.8% from September to October, increased by 0.03% and 0.54% from November to December, and increased by 0.65% in January this year. Year - on - year, from March to December last year, it increased by 3%, 4.47%, 6.5%, 8.77%, 10.3%, 9.94%, 8.35%, 8.36%, 8.57%, 8.05%, 6.71%, 6.23%, 4.71%, 3.29%, 2.97%, and 2.22%, and increased by 2.24% in January this year. Theoretically, from March to June this year, the pig slaughter will increase by 0.9%, 0.1%, 0.5%, and 0.1% month - on - month, decrease by 0.8% and 0.8% from July to August, be basically flat in September, and increase by 0.5% and 0.7% from October to November; year - on - year, from March to November this year, it will increase by 8.6%, 8%, 6.7%, 6.2%, 4.7%, 3.3%, 3%, 2.2%, and 2.2% [15]. 3.2.2 Medium - term Supply: Piglet Inventory - Piglet price: In February, before the festival, the breeding side considered the high cost of replenishing piglets after the year, so they replenished in advance to reduce costs, and the demand for piglets was strong. After the festival, the replenishment of piglets became more cautious. Most of the northern market was on the sidelines, and a small part still replenished, but the volume was not large. The quotes in the southern region were generally stable, and the trading enthusiasm was not high. According to Yongyi Consulting monitoring, the average market sales price of weaned piglets in February was 364 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 42 yuan/head and a growth rate of 13%. As it is still the peak season for piglet replenishment, there is still room for piglet prices to rise [26]. - Piglet inventory: According to Yongyi Information data, as of January, the inventory of small pigs in sample enterprises was 2.368 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73% and a year - on - year increase of 4.67%. From August to October last year, the small pig inventory increased by 1.04%, 1.42%, and 0.94%, decreased by 0.89% and 1.3% from November to December, and continued to decline by 0.73% in January. Year - on - year, from August to December last year, it increased by 11.86%, 11.36%, 11.43%, 9.02%, and 6.35%, and increased by 4.67% in January. Theoretically, in the medium - term, assuming a 6 - month slaughter cycle, the pig slaughter will increase by 1.42% and 0.9% from March to April, and decrease by 0.9%, 1.3%, and 0.7% from May to July. Year - on - year, from March to July, it will increase by 11.9%, 11.4%, 11.4%, 9%, 6.4%, and 4.7% [26]. 3.2.3 Short - term Supply: Large Pig Inventory, Pressure - barring and Second - fattening - Large pig inventory: According to Yongyi Information data, as of January, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises was 1.282 million heads, with a month - on - month growth rate of - 2.17%, and the month - on - month growth rate of large pig inventory in December last year was - 3.93%. Theoretically, in the short - term, the pig slaughter in February this year will decrease by 3.9% month - on - month, and by 2.2% in March. According to national statistics, by the end of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% and a quarterly - on - quarter decrease of 7.13 million heads (a decline of 1.63%). The quarterly - on - quarter growth rates in 2025 were - 2.4%, 1.7%, 2.9%, and - 1.63% [30]. - Pressure - barring and second - fattening: According to Ganglian data, in January, the proportion of large pigs over 140 kg in inventory was 1.53%, with a month - on - month growth rate of 1.43%. From November to January this year, the growth rates of the proportion of large pig inventory were 14.03%, 4.46%, and 1.43%. The significant increase in the inventory of 140 - kg pigs was mainly due to the Spring Festival stocking and the cold weather driving the terminal demand for pork, the good consumption of large pigs, and the delayed slaughter of second - fattening households after phased replenishment, which pushed up the proportion of fat pig inventory. In terms of second - fattening, according to Yongyi's tracking and research data, the average proportion of second - fattening sales from December to January this year was 1.4% and 2%. Before the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm for second - fattening slaughter increased significantly, the slaughter rhythm accelerated, and the utilization rate of fattening pens dropped rapidly to a low level. As of mid - February, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 19.5%, a decrease of 11 percentage points from the previous ten - day period and 14.5 percentage points from the previous month, and an increase of 1 percentage point year - on - year. After the rapid slaughter of most pressure - barring and second - fattening pigs before the festival, the post - holiday pressure was reduced, but there were still some fat pigs to be slaughtered [30][31]. 3.2.4 Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Weight - Slaughter volume: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in February was 22.92 million heads, a decrease of 17.73% from the actual completion in January. If calculated based on 21 days, the daily - average month - on - month growth rate was 21.44%. According to national statistics, in 2025, the live pig slaughter was 719.73 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 17.16 million heads and a growth rate of 2.4%. Among them, the national live pig slaughter in the first to fourth quarters was 194.76 million heads, 171.43 million heads, 163.73 million heads, and 189.81 million heads respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 0.1%, 1.2%, 4.7%, and 4.1% respectively. The pork output was 59.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.32 million tons and a growth rate of 4.1%, reaching a record high. Among them, the pork output in the first to fourth quarters was 16.02 million tons, 14.18 million tons, 13.48 million tons, and 15.7 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 1.2%, 1.4%, 7.1%, and 5.2% respectively [34][37]. - Slaughter weight: In February, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 127.1 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5 kg and a decline of 1.17%, and an increase of 1.4 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.11%. The average slaughter weight of live pigs in February first decreased and then rebounded slightly, and the center of the month - on - month weight still moved down slightly. Firstly, during the Spring Festival in February, the weight decreased after farmers concentratedly slaughtered large pigs before the festival; secondly, the industry expected a weak market after the festival, and large - scale farms also had the intention to reduce the weight and slaughter in advance. In the second half of the month, the breeding side resumed sales after the holiday, and the pressure - barring live pigs during the Spring Festival were gradually put on the market, driving a small increase in the average slaughter weight of live pigs, but the overall increase was limited. In February, the proportion of small - weight pigs under 90 kg in the total slaughter was 4.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 percentage points. The epidemic was stable this month. Although there was a decrease in slaughter during the Spring Festival, which led to a partial increase in the average weight, and some second - fattening entered the market in some provinces, most of them were standard pigs, which had little impact on the proportion of small - weight pig slaughter. In February, the proportion of large - weight pigs over 150 kg in the total slaughter was 5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5 percentage points. Before the Spring Festival, the demand for large pigs was good, the standard - to - fat price difference widened, and the slaughter increased. After the year, the inventory of large pigs decreased, and the overall proportion of slaughter decreased. In March, after the holiday, the price of fat pigs is temporarily high and the fat - to - standard price difference remains favorable. Farmers still have the sentiment of holding back sales at low prices, and combined with the restorative weight gain of live pigs in large - scale farms after the holiday, it is expected that the average slaughter weight of live pigs in March may increase slightly [38]. 3.2.5 Import Supply: Pork Import According to the announcement of the General Administration of Customs, the total pork import volume in December was 60,000 tons, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons; in