公募基金指数跟踪周报（2026.02.24-2026.02.28）：周期成长轮动演绎，冲突政策交织影响-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week after the Spring Festival (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.27), the market rebounded moderately, with broad - based indexes approaching previous highs. Pro - cyclical sectors like real estate and chemicals rose due to price increase expectations, while the consumer sector回调 after concentrated holiday consumption. AI and other growth sectors spread to upstream semiconductor components. Before the specific policy directions are determined, the market may engage in games around the Two Sessions themes, and the macro - environment is generally optimistic before Trump's planned visit to China at the end of March [3][11][12]. - Last week (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.28), the bond market continued to fluctuate. Although there was an increase in the willingness to take profits after the festival, the sudden geopolitical conflict on Saturday led funds to flow into the bond market for safety, causing the yield to maturity to decline. In the short - term, the bond market is likely to continue the range - bound pattern [4][13]. - On February 27, 2026, the first four products under the new mutual - recognition fund regulations were approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, including two stock funds and two bond funds, which released the sales potential of mutual - recognition funds in the Chinese mainland [16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - In the first week after the Spring Festival (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.27), the market rebounded moderately. The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, ChiNext, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rose by 1.98%, 1.08%, 1.05%, 4.32%, and 4.34% respectively. The total market trading volume rebounded to 2.5 trillion. However, several broad - based index ETFs faced slight capital outflows, with the share of some ETFs decreasing by over 2 billion [11]. - Pro - cyclical sectors like real estate and chemicals rose due to the relaxation of real - estate policies in Shanghai and the geopolitical situation in Iran. AI and other growth sectors spread to upstream semiconductor components, while the consumer sector回调 after the holiday [11]. - Geopolitical events may bring short - term investment opportunities in the stock market, but attention should be paid to whether the conflict will escalate. The market is in a policy observation window before the Two Sessions, and the "wait - and - see" attitude of investors is the core reason for the market's lack of a clear main line [12]. 3.1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Last week (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.28), the bond market continued to fluctuate. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 0.23BP to 1.32%, the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.46BP to 1.78%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield rose 2.66BP to 2.27%. The short - term adjustment was mainly concentrated in the ultra - long end, and the 10 - year yield recovered quickly [13]. - The sudden geopolitical conflict on Saturday led funds to flow into the bond market for safety, causing the yield to maturity to decline. In the future, the risk of short - and medium - term adjustment is limited, and the short - term is likely to continue the range - bound pattern [13]. - Last week (2026.02.23 - 2026.02.27), U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board. The 1 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell 3BP to 3.48%, the 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell 10BP to 3.38%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell 11BP to 3.97% [14]. - Last week (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.27), the CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 1.08% to 1035.78 points. In the primary market, 10 new public REITs made progress [14][15]. 3.1.3 Public Fund Market Dynamics - On February 27, 2026, the first four products under the new mutual - recognition fund regulations were approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, including Morgan Asia Equity High - Yield Fund, Taiping Greater China New Dynamic Equity Fund, Fidelity Global Investment Fund - Hong Kong Bond Fund, and Huaxia Select RMB Investment - Grade Income Fund, covering two stock funds and two bond funds [16]. - The new regulations relaxed the sales ratio limit from 50% to 80%, releasing the sales potential of mutual - recognition funds in the Chinese mainland [16]. 3.2 Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Equity Strategy Theme Index - Active Equity Fund Selection: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds according to performance competitiveness and style stability, and the style distribution is balanced according to the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI). The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [19][20]. 3.2.2 Investment Style Index - Value Equity Fund Selection: The index includes deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [23]. - Balanced Equity Fund Selection: The index selects 10 funds with relatively balanced and value - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [23]. - Growth Equity Fund Selection: The index aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies. It selects 10 funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth (H30355.CSI) [27][28]. 3.2.3 Industry Theme Index - Pharmaceutical Equity Fund Selection: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 15 funds. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [30][31]. - Consumer Equity Fund Selection: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative consumer - related indexes. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the consumer theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [31]. - Technology Equity Fund Selection: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative technology - related indexes. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [35][36]. - High - end Manufacturing Equity Fund Selection: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative high - end manufacturing - related indexes. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [40][41]. - Cyclical Equity Fund Selection: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative cyclical - related indexes. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [43][44]. 3.2.4 Money Market Enhancement Index - Money Market Enhancement Strategy: The index aims for liquidity management and pursues a curve that exceeds money market funds. It mainly allocates money market funds and passive index - type bond funds (inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds). The performance benchmark is the CSI Money Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [46]. 3.2.5 Pure Bond Index - Short - Term Bond Fund Selection: The index aims for liquidity management and pursues a smooth curve on the basis of controlling drawdown. It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute return capabilities. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index+50% * Ordinary Money Market Fund Index [50]. - Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection: The index invests in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, aiming for stable returns while controlling drawdown. It selects 5 funds, balances coupon strategies and band - trading operations, and adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [52]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Income Plus Index - Low - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection: The index has an equity center of 10% and selects 10 funds each period. It focuses on funds with an equity center (total equity position after considering convertible bond and stock holdings) within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index+90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [55]. - Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection: The index has an equity center of 20% and selects 5 funds each period. It selects funds with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index+80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [58]. - High - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection: The index has an equity center of 30% and selects 5 funds each period. It selects funds with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index+70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [61]. 3.2.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - Convertible Bond Fund Selection: The index selects bond - type funds with an average proportion of convertible bond investment in bond market value of not less than 60% in the latest period and not less than 80% in the past four quarters. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds [63]. - QDII Bond Fund Selection: The index selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions. The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds [67]. - REITs Fund Selection: The index selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type. The underlying assets of REITs are mainly infrastructure projects [68].