东亚期货铝产业周报-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Aluminum - Supply side: No production increase or decrease this week, and the operating capacity remains stable [3] - Demand side: Downstream processing has not fully recovered, and trading volume is average [3] - Profit: Industry theoretical profit has increased compared to last week [3] - Inventory: Social inventory has accumulated due to downstream holidays [3] - Market: Short - term fluctuations are large due to overseas macro - situation and macro factors, and the market is currently in a high - level shock [3] Alumina - Supply: Some enterprises will end maintenance and resume normal production, and the supply has increased this week. Overall, the supply is still in surplus, and there are still fundamental negative factors [4] - Demand: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain stable in the short term, and the demand for alumina continues to be high [4] - Price: The spot price of alumina is stable this week, and the factory inventory continues to increase. Short - term supply disturbances still exist, and the short - term price bottom may gradually appear [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream Supply - Bauxite: China's bauxite production shows seasonal patterns, with data on national monthly production, provincial monthly production, monthly import volume, and port inventory [22][23] - Alumina: China's alumina production also has seasonal characteristics, including monthly production, provincial production, weekly operating rate, import volume, and import profit and loss [24][27][30] - Electrolytic Aluminum: Global and Chinese electrolytic aluminum monthly production shows seasonality, along with Chinese electrolytic aluminum weekly production, net import, and spot import profit and loss [31][34][40] Downstream Demand - Product Output: Aluminum rod, profile, plate, foil, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production show seasonal patterns [41] - Operating Rate: The industry average weekly operating rate, as well as the weekly and monthly operating rates of various aluminum products, show seasonal characteristics [45][52] - Export: The export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products shows seasonality, and there are also data on aluminum product export profits [54][56] - Related Industries: There are data on real - estate (housing start and completion area, fixed - asset investment), power engineering (solar power investment, grid engineering investment), and automotive (automobile and new - energy vehicle production) [60][63][67] Inventory - Bauxite: Chinese bauxite monthly inventory shows seasonality, including overall and provincial inventories [65][68] - Alumina: Alumina enterprise in - plant inventory, inventory days, SHFE alumina warehouse receipts, and LME aluminum inventory show seasonal patterns [69][70] - Electrolytic Aluminum: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory, inventory days, aluminum rod and ingot + rod spot inventory show seasonality [70][73] Cost and Profit - Raw Material Prices: Domestic and imported bauxite prices, 32% ion - membrane caustic soda prices, pre - baked anode prices, and power coal prices are presented [75] - Energy Prices: Dutch natural gas TTF and European partial country electricity prices are shown [76] - Cost and Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum: The cost and profit of Chinese electrolytic aluminum are presented [76]