瑞达期货国债期货日报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the bond market may be slightly affected by geopolitical conflicts, but the overall focus remains on the policy expectations of the Two Sessions. The current supply pressure of government bonds is generally controllable, and the "weak recovery" pattern of the fundamentals has not changed, providing bottom - support for the bond market. As the Two Sessions approach, market gaming on policy expectations intensifies, potentially causing periodic fluctuations. It is expected that Treasury bond futures in March will continue the range - bound pattern [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Closing Prices and Volume Changes: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.13%, 0.09%, 0.02%, and 0.55% respectively; T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 4445 and 15112 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 15942 and 2843 respectively [2] - Futures Spread Changes: Some spreads such as TL2606 - 2603 and T2606 - 2603 increased, while others like TF2606 - 2603 and TS2606 - 2603 decreased [2] - Futures Position Changes: The main contract positions of T and TF increased by 10738 and 2383 respectively, while those of TS and TL decreased by 1700 and 3208 respectively. The net positions of the top 20 in T, TS, and TL increased, while that of TF decreased [2] 3.2 Bond Market Data - CTD Bond Net Price Changes: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 230004.IB and 250014.IB increased [2] - Active Bond Yield Changes: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds decreased by 1.00bp, 1.00bp, 2.50bp, 2.50bp, and 2.75bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rate Data - Short - term Interest Rate Changes: Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates decreased by 0.70bp, 5.46bp, and 6.51bp respectively; Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates decreased by 0.30bp, 3.40bp, and 0.60bp respectively [2] - LPR Interest Rate: The 1 - year LPR remained at 3.00%, and the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5% [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 19 billion yuan, with a maturity scale of 0 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - The 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held in Beijing on March 4, 2026 [2] - China's GDP in 2025 was 14,018.79 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase from the previous year; national total income was 13,937 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase. The population decreased by 339,000 at the end of 2025. There were 92 space launches, including 50 commercial launches. Domestic tourism reached 6.52 billion person - times, a 16.2% increase, and the number of foreigners entering China through visa - free policies was 30.08 million, a 49.5% increase [2] - Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated on February 28, and the US and Israel launched a joint military strike against Iran on the same day. US President Trump said the military action might last about four weeks, and the new Iranian leadership hopes to resume negotiations [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The US February ISM manufacturing index at 17:00 on March 2; the 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held in Beijing on March 5 [3]