黑色产业链日报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For steel products, short - term policy expectations support the market, but weak fundamentals limit the upside. Wait for policy implementation after the Two Sessions and inventory depletion speed [3] - For iron ore, in March, during the Two Sessions and macro - fluctuation window period, market expectation volatility is expected to increase. Current economic stimulus expectations are low, and demand is pessimistic. Pay attention to the possibility of expectation differences. Valuation is low, and beware of capital re - allocation [21] - For coal and coke, from March to April, it's the terminal demand verification period. Considering the late Spring Festival this year, the post - holiday resumption of work may be slow. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening macro - sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [32] - For ferroalloys, in the short term, silicon - manganese prices are supported by manganese ore news, but later, due to sentiment release and high - inventory suppression, there is a drive for hedging in the industrial end. Silicon - iron has good fundamentals and cost support, but limited upside due to weak black downstream fundamentals [47] - For soda ash, the current rigid demand is stable. There are ignition expectations in the float glass end and new ignition production lines in photovoltaic glass. Some manufacturers are expected to have maintenance, which will affect production. The Spring Festival inventory accumulation is slightly lower than expected. The upside and downside price spaces are limited, waiting for further accumulation of industrial contradictions [64] - For glass, the actual demand has not returned, and the production and sales are temporarily weak. The market is in the initial recovery stage. High mid - stream inventory and supply return expectations limit the upside, and demand needs to be verified [88] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - Prices: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3131, 3067, and 3105 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3259, 3219, and 3238 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Spreads: Rebar 01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01 month - spreads were 64, - 38, - 26 yuan/ton; hot - rolled coil 01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01 month - spreads were 40, - 19, - 21 yuan/ton [4] - Spot and Basis: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices and basis in different regions changed slightly from February 28 to March 2, 2026 [9][11] - Ratios: 01, 05, 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were 4; 01, 05, 10 rebar/coke ratios were 2 [18] Iron Ore - Prices: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, 09 iron ore contracts were 721.5, 754.5, 733.5 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of 01, 05, 09 contracts were 34, 2.5, 22 yuan/ton respectively [22] - Fundamentals: As of February 27, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 233.28 tons, 45 - port throughput was 298.48 tons, and 45 - port inventory was 17091.96 tons [26] Coal and Coke - Prices: On March 2, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, 01 - 05 month - spreads of coking coal were - 193, - 95.5, 288.5 yuan/ton; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, 01 - 05 month - spreads of coke were - 91.5, - 79, 170.5 yuan/ton [33][35] - Spot and Profits: Spot prices of various types of coking coal and coke were stable on March 2, 2026. The immediate coking profit was - 3 yuan/ton [36] Ferroalloys - Silicon - iron: On March 2, 2026, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 176 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron spot prices in different regions increased to varying degrees [48] - Silicon - manganese: On March 2, 2026, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 18 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese spot prices in different regions also increased [49] Soda Ash - Prices: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, 01 soda ash contracts were 1188, 1252, 1299 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5 month - spreads were - 64, - 47, 111 yuan/ton respectively [65] - Spot: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were stable on March 2, 2026 [65] Glass - Prices: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, 01 glass contracts were 1043, 1154, 1216 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5 month - spreads were - 111, - 62, 173 yuan/ton respectively [89] - Production and Sales: The production and sales of glass in different regions were weak in late February 2026 [90]