原油成品油早报-20260302

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent oil prices are dominated by geopolitical premiums, and attention should be paid to volatility risks. If the situation evolves into a multi - party war in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz is actually interrupted, the upside potential of oil prices will rise above $100 per barrel. If the situation evolves towards an unexpected regime change, the oil prices will return to the 60 - 70 central level in the medium - to - long term, but domestic exports are expected to decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From February 13 to February 27, 2026, WTI rose from $62.89 to $67.02, an increase of $1.81; BRENT rose from $67.75 to $72.87, an increase of $2.12; DUBAI rose from $67.05 to $68.40, an increase of $0.06 [2]. - SC rose from 460.70 to 488.40, an increase of 4.80; OMAN rose from $66.47 to $72.07, an increase of $1.63 [2]. - Japanese naphtha CFR rose from $593.88 to $636.63, an increase of $4.13; Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased from $16.05 to $5.1, a decrease of $0.3 [2]. 3.2 Daily News - Citi Bank expects that in the case of easing US - Iran relations, Brent crude oil prices will fall back to around $70 per barrel, and are expected to fall to $62 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026 [2]. - Citi analyst Max Layton said that in the basic forecast, Brent crude oil prices will remain in the range of $80 - $90 per barrel for at least a week [3]. - Analysts believe that crude oil and freight costs may remain high due to the US - Israel attack on Iran, the possible expansion of the regional war, and the long - term interruption of oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - More than 200 ships are stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, and war insurance rates are expected to increase by 25% - 50% [3]. - US President Trump said that the military action against Iran may last about four weeks [3]. 3.3 Inventory - For the week ending February 20, 2026, API crude oil inventory was 1142.7 million barrels, expected 125 million barrels, previous value - 60.9 million barrels; API gasoline inventory was - 153.5 million barrels, expected - 59.1 million barrels, previous value - 31.2 million barrels; API refined oil inventory was - 277.1 million barrels, expected - 190 million barrels, previous value - 156.7 million barrels [3]. - EIA report shows that on February 20, US crude oil exports decreased by 277,000 barrels per day to 4.313 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 33,000 barrels to 13.702 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 15.989 million barrels to 436 million barrels, an increase of 3.81%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.391 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 5.38%; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.659 million barrels per day, an increase of 135,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [3].