宏观策略研究海外宏观周报（2026年第9期）：中东局势骤然升级，全球市场面临大幅波动-20260302

Key Points - The report highlights a significant escalation in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran, which has led to increased volatility in global markets. The situation includes military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, resulting in the death of Iranian leaders and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route [4][10][12]. - Global asset prices have begun to reflect the impending geopolitical conflict, with gold and oil prices rising significantly. Gold prices increased from $4,800 to over $5,200 per ounce, while Brent crude oil prices rose from $66 to $73 per barrel over the past two weeks [11][12]. - The report identifies four key factors that will influence future global asset trends: the duration of the Strait of Hormuz's closure, the potential change in Iran's regime and its response, the U.S. government's subsequent actions, and the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments in response to rising oil prices and inflation [12][14][15]. Group 1: Major Asset Movements - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased, with the 10-year yield falling from 4.06% to 3.945% due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [11]. - The S&P 500 index has shown a slight decline of 0.44%, while energy and defense stocks have performed better amid the geopolitical tensions [11][12]. - Non-U.S. equity markets have seen a positive response, with European and Japanese markets experiencing notable gains over the past two weeks [11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) has exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5% [20]. - In Europe, Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased to 1.9%, while France's CPI has rebounded to 1.0% [27]. - Japan's Tokyo CPI has shown a slight increase to 1.6%, indicating a modest inflationary trend [31].