2025年二季度全球基金业绩报告（含2025年第三季度初步数据）（英）

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed outlook for private capital, with private equity (PE) showing resilience despite recent market volatility, while venture capital (VC) and real estate face challenges [5][8][10]. Core Insights - Recent internal rates of return (IRR) for private capital have lagged behind long-term averages, suggesting a potential return to mean or a new normal of declining returns [8][26]. - The private equity sector continues to outperform most areas of private capital, with signs of recovery in transaction and exit activities expected to improve prospects in the coming quarters [9][10]. - Venture capital returns have begun to normalize after a prolonged period of underperformance, although they remain below historical averages [9][10]. - Private debt is experiencing a "golden age" with strong performance and robust financing, despite concerns over rising interest rates and potential bankruptcies [9][10]. - Real estate returns are currently below long-term averages due to ongoing challenges in the office and residential sectors, but there are expectations for increased transaction activity in 2026 [10][11]. - Real assets have provided stable cash flows, reinforcing their position in investment portfolios, although natural resource funds have been impacted by commodity price volatility [11][12]. - Fund of funds (FoFs) have seen their core value proposition weaken, yet long-term performance remains favorable for patient investors [11][12]. - Secondary market transactions reached record levels in 2025, establishing their value as a tool for portfolio management and liquidity [11][12]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Recent performance metrics indicate that private equity and fund of funds have deviated significantly from the past decade's averages, with private equity showing a 1.2% return over the last year compared to a 7.2% long-term average [13][14]. - Private equity's long-term performance appears attractive on a risk-adjusted basis, despite short-term challenges [8][9]. Private Equity - Private equity continues to outperform most private capital sectors, with a notable recovery in transaction and exit activities anticipated for the latter half of 2025 [9][10]. - The distribution of private equity returns remains below historical averages, but there are signs of improvement as market conditions evolve [10][76]. Venture Capital - Venture capital returns have started to recover, although the process is gradual and still below historical norms, with North America and Europe showing diverging trends [9][10]. Private Debt - The private debt market is characterized by strong performance and significant capital inflows, marking a favorable environment for this investment strategy [9][10]. Real Estate - Real estate returns are currently challenged by high interest rates and rising development costs, but there are expectations for increased activity in 2026 [10][11]. Real Assets - Real assets have maintained a stable reputation, providing consistent cash flows, although natural resource funds have faced challenges due to commodity price exposure [11][12]. Fund of Funds - The core value proposition of fund of funds has diminished, yet they continue to deliver favorable long-term returns for investors willing to be patient [11][12]. Secondary Market - The secondary market has established itself as a valuable tool for liquidity and portfolio management, with record transaction levels in 2025 [11][12].