聚烯烃月报-20260303

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Monthly Report [1] - Date: March 3, 2026 [2] - Core Viewpoint: In 2026, although there are plans to put a large amount of new production capacity of polyethylene and polypropylene into operation in China, the release of production capacity is highly concentrated in the second half of the year, making the market in the first and second quarters relatively in a vacuum period of capacity expansion. In the short term, the supply trends of the varieties are differentiated. The supply - side pressure of polypropylene is alleviated stage - by - stage, while the supply of polyethylene tends to be loose driven by the release of new production capacity and the reduction of overhauls. The downstream resumption of work is slow, and there are still macro - restricting factors. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and the inflection point of inventory reduction may occur around mid - March. The current market trading core has shifted from its own fundamentals to the cost and sentiment logic driven by geopolitics. [7][68] Market Review - In the first quarter, the amplitude of the plastic and polypropylene disk was nearly 10%, and the center of the disk moved upward. In January, the plastic reached a high of 7139 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and polypropylene reached 6959 yuan/ton. The upward movement of the disk continued the cost - driven logic. In February, as crude oil gave back the geopolitical risk premium, the disk drive gradually returned to the weak industrial reality. After the Spring Festival, affected by the cost support pushed up by geopolitical conflicts, polyolefins opened higher but quickly fell back due to high inventory and weak reality. [16] - In the spot market, the monthly average price of LLDPE was 6863 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.41%. The monthly average price of LDPE was 8678 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.40%. Most prices of HDPE varieties softened. The monthly average price of PP raffia in East China was 6596.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.87%. The average market price of copolymer was 6790.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.41%. [17] Fundamental Analysis Capacity and Production - In 2025, the planned new PE production capacity was 543 tons, and 463 tons/year had been put into production by November. The new PP production capacity was 455.5 tons, and most of them were put into production in the first three quarters. In 2026, the planned new PE production capacity is 603 tons, highly concentrated in the second half of the year. The planned new PP production capacity is about 560 tons, also mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. [18][28] - From January to February 2026, the production of polypropylene and polyethylene showed a differentiated trend. In January, the domestic PP production was 3.3673 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.96% and a year - on - year increase of 2.24%. In February, the production further decreased to 3.0682 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.88% and a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The production of polyethylene increased. In January, it was 2.8457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.19%. In February, it increased slightly to 2.8354 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.13% and a year - on - year increase of 13.75%. [19] Import and Export - In 2025, the import dependence of PE dropped to 30.58%, and that of PP further dropped to 8.44%. The PP trade pattern is gradually changing to net export. The export volume in 2025 increased by 28.91% year - on - year. India's cancellation of the mandatory BIS certification for polyolefin products brings short - term structural opportunities for China's polypropylene export. [31][32] Inventory - After the Spring Festival in 2026, the inventory of the two major oil companies reached 940,000 tons, an increase of 480,000 tons compared with that before the festival. As of the end of February, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene was 1.078 million tons, an increase of 437,400 tons compared with that before the festival. The social sample inventory of polyethylene was 579,700 tons, an increase of 236,000 tons compared with that before the festival. The inflection point of inventory reduction may occur around mid - March. [38] Cost and Profit - Coal: During the Spring Festival, the international thermal coal price continued to rise. The domestic coal price is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term. The average profit of coal - made PE in February was 9.20 yuan/ton, and the average profit of coal - made PP increased, with an average value of 205.2 yuan/ton. [42] - Crude oil: During the Spring Festival, the international oil price rose sharply. The profit of oil - made PP was - 542.44 yuan/ton, and the production loss of oil - made PE expanded to - 637.06 yuan/ton. [43] - Propane: After the Spring Festival, the propane price is expected to rise. The profitability of PDH - made PP production enterprises increased. [43] Downstream Industry - PE downstream: After the Spring Festival, the overall start - up rate of the PE downstream industry increased slightly, but was still restricted by the arrival of employees. The raw material inventory is expected to increase slightly. [48] - PP downstream: The average start - up rate of the PP downstream industry increased significantly after the Spring Festival. It is expected that the resumption of work and production of the PP downstream industry will continue to accelerate next week, and the start - up rate will continue to rise. [51] White Goods - In March 2026, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines was 39.11 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. The export production schedule continued to shrink. Since January 1, 2026, CBAM has entered the substantial stage, which will increase the cost of home appliance export enterprises. [58][59] Outlook - The conflict between the US and Iran affects polyolefins through upstream energy cost disturbances and direct import impacts. PE is more affected than PP. [67] - In the short term, geopolitical and emotional support is strong, and the disk fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or oscillatory thinking and be vigilant against the risk of decline after the pulse - type market. [69]