大越期货沪铜早报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market has mixed fundamentals with some positive and negative factors. The supply side is disturbed, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The copper price has hit a new record high due to geopolitical factors and is currently fluctuating at a high level, expected to move in a short - term oscillation. Attention should be paid to the Middle East events [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances and a decline in the manufacturing PMI in January indicate a slightly positive outlook. The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, showing a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3]. - Basis: The spot price is 102,090 with a basis of - 1,760, indicating a discount to futures, which is a negative factor [3]. - Inventory: On March 2, copper inventory increased by 3,975 tons to 257,675 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 119,054 tons to 391,529 tons compared to the previous week, presenting a neutral situation [3]. - Market Chart: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is neutral [3]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, but long positions are decreasing, which is a positive factor [3]. - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances remain, with the event at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine intensifying. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level, expected to move in a short - term oscillation. Attention should be paid to Middle East events [3]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Global policy easing and tightness in the mining end. Specific factors include geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, potential Fed rate cuts, and slow production growth at mines along with the production cut event at the Freeport Indonesia mine [4][5]. - Likely Negative Factors: Repeated US comprehensive tariffs and the fact that the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. 3.3 Inventory - Exchange Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 119,054 tons to 391,529 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - Bonded - Area Inventory: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. 3.4 Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [16]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - The global copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance shows that in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, the apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, the actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a supply - demand balance of 0.11 million tons [22].