大越期货天胶早报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report did not mention an industry investment rating [6] 2. Core Views - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the spot market is strong. Domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market is entering a bearish season, so a bearish mindset should be maintained [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are high. The market is in a bearish season, and a bearish mindset should be maintained [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high. However, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions. Automobile production and sales are declining, while tire production is increasing year - on - year, and tire industry exports are rebounding [6][8][25] - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. The inventory in Qingdao has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. The exchange inventory has not changed much recently, and the Qingdao area is experiencing inventory accumulation [6][16][19] - Import: Import volume has rebounded [22] - Spot Price: The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on March 2nd. The spot price is 16,800, and the basis is - 445, showing a bearish trend. The basis weakened on March 2nd [6][10][37] - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line. The main force has a net long position, and the long positions are increasing [6] 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely Factors: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] - Bearish Factors: Bearish domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [8] - Risk Points: Global economic recession, lower - than - expected domestic economic growth, and Sino - US trade frictions [8] 3.4 Basis - The basis weakened on March 2nd. The spot price is 16,800, and the basis is - 445, showing a bearish trend [6][37]