大越期货玻璃早报-20260303

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With low supply, dismal downstream deep - processing factory orders, and rising glass factory inventories, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level, volatile, and weak manner in the short term [3][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 1043 yuan/ton, showing a - 1.79% change from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe safety large - board glass is 956 yuan/ton, with a 1.27% increase. The main basis is - 87 yuan/ton, a - 26.27% change [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 956 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Glass production profit has slightly recovered, but cold - repair is less than expected, and supply is at a low level [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 209, with an operating rate of 70.61%, at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,600 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [19][21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [5][25]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 76.008 million weight boxes, a 37.32% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [3][40]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, and other aspects, as well as production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [41].