大越期货油脂早报-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamentals and stable import inventories. The MPOB report shows that the palm oil situation in December last year was slightly bearish, but the export data in January increased, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The US - China relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and it is expected to implement the B50 plan in 2026 [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The current shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8460, the basis is 200, and the spot is at a premium to the futures. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, the previous value was 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is neutral [2] - Main position: The long position of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report situation is the same, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8880, the basis is - 18, and the spot is at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, the previous value was 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [3] - Main position: The short position of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report situation is the same as above, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9920, the basis is 561, and the spot is at a premium to the futures. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, the previous value was 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is neutral [4] - Main position: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high level in history, the domestic oil and fat inventory continues to accumulate, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - Current main logic: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose [5]